Matchup model · Wednesday, October 14, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.3 | 23.6 | 23.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 3.7 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 30% | Under |
| Assists | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.9 | 31.2 | 32 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 27 | 26.4 | 27 | 44% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.2 | 28.4 | 28 | 53% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Stephen Curry draws Los Angeles Lakers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Austin Reaves (average defender, 64 Perimeter D), Luka Doncic secondary.
He's cold — 19.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-4.1 vs season). Model lines Curry at 23.6 pts (range 20–27.2) vs a 23.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Los Angeles Lakers (55%), projected 117–118, ~235 total at 98.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.1 | 19 | 18 | 62% | Over |
| Rebounds | 5.1 | 3.9 | 5 | 19% | Under |
| Assists | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 27.7 | 27.4 | 27.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 23.2 | 22.9 | 23 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 22.6 | 23.4 | 22.5 | 60% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Jimmy Butler draws Los Angeles Lakers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Austin Reaves (average defender, 64 Perimeter D), Luka Doncic secondary.
Model lines Butler at 19 pts (range 16.1–21.9) vs a 18 line — a good chance to clear it (62%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Los Angeles Lakers (55%), projected 117–118, ~235 total at 98.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.1 | 40.8 | 40 | 55% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 8 | 6.2 | 8 | 9% | Under |
| Assists | 9.6 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 46% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 57.7 | 56.3 | 57.5 | 44% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 48.1 | 47 | 48 | 44% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 49.7 | 50.1 | 49.5 | 53% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Luka Doncic draws Golden State Warriors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Draymond Green (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), De'Anthony Melton secondary, with Al Horford as the low-man/help.
Model lines Doncic at 40.8 pts (range 34.6–47.1) vs a 40 line — a lean to clear it (55%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Los Angeles Lakers (55%), projected 118–117, ~235 total at 98.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24.8 | 24.3 | 25 | 43% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 4.8 | 3.7 | 5 | 14% | Under |
| Assists | 6.5 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 44% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 36.1 | 34.2 | 36 | 36% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 29.6 | 28 | 29.5 | 36% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 31.3 | 30.6 | 31.5 | 42% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Austin Reaves draws Golden State Warriors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Draymond Green (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), De'Anthony Melton secondary, with Al Horford as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 20 pts a night over his last 5 (-4.8 vs season). Model lines Reaves at 24.3 pts (range 20.6–28) vs a 25 line — an uphill case to clear it (43%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Los Angeles Lakers (55%), projected 118–117, ~235 total at 98.4 pace.