Matchup model · Sunday, October 11, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.3 | 26.6 | 28.5 | 33% | Under |
| Rebounds | 12.6 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 9% | Under |
| Assists | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 44.4 | 40 | 44.5 | 21% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 40.9 | 36.3 | 41 | 19% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 31.8 | 30.3 | 32 | 36% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Victor Wembanyama draws Phoenix Suns's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Khaman Maluach (average defender, 64 Rim protection), Miles Bridges secondary, with Jordan Goodwin as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17 pts a night over his last 5 (-11.3 vs season). Injury swing: Mark Williams would normally take it; instead it falls to Khaman Maluach (+0.5 pts). Model lines Wembanyama at 26.6 pts (range 22.5–30.6) vs a 28.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (33%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Phoenix Suns (56%), projected 116–118, ~234 total at 98.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.1 | 18.9 | 19 | 49% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 6.4 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 9% | Under |
| Assists | 9.4 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 35% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 34.9 | 32.6 | 35 | 30% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 25.5 | 23.9 | 25.5 | 32% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.5 | 27.6 | 28.5 | 42% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Stephon Castle draws Phoenix Suns's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jordan Goodwin (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Ryan Dunn secondary, with Khaman Maluach as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-2.9 vs season). Model lines Castle at 18.9 pts (range 16–21.8) vs a 19 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (49%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Phoenix Suns (56%), projected 116–118, ~234 total at 98.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.6 | 27.6 | 28.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 4 | 3.1 | 4 | 22% | Under |
| Assists | 6.8 | 6.6 | 7 | 40% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 39.4 | 37.3 | 39.5 | 34% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 32.6 | 30.7 | 32.5 | 35% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 35.4 | 34.2 | 35.5 | 41% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Devin Booker draws San Antonio Spurs's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Stephon Castle (solid defender, 74 Perimeter D), Devin Vassell secondary, with Victor Wembanyama as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 21.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-6.8 vs season). Model lines Booker at 27.6 pts (range 23.4–31.8) vs a 28.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (43%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Phoenix Suns (56%), projected 118–116, ~234 total at 98.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.3 | 22.2 | 23.5 | 37% | Under |
| Rebounds | 3.8 | 2.9 | 4 | 18% | Under |
| Assists | 2 | 2.2 | 2 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 29.1 | 27.3 | 29 | 32% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.1 | 25.1 | 27 | 31% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 25.3 | 24.4 | 25.5 | 38% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Dillon Brooks draws San Antonio Spurs's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Stephon Castle (solid defender, 74 Perimeter D), Devin Vassell secondary, with Victor Wembanyama as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.6 pts a night over his last 5 (-6.7 vs season). Model lines Brooks at 22.2 pts (range 18.8–25.6) vs a 23.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (37%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Phoenix Suns (56%), projected 118–116, ~234 total at 98.4 pace.