Matchup model · Tuesday, October 13, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.3 | 27.1 | 28.5 | 38% | Under |
| Rebounds | 12.6 | 10 | 12.5 | 12% | Under |
| Assists | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 44.4 | 40.9 | 44.5 | 27% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 40.9 | 37.1 | 41 | 24% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 31.8 | 31 | 32 | 42% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Victor Wembanyama draws Utah Jazz's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jaxson Hayes (strong defender, 79 Rim protection), Kyle Filipowski secondary, with Josh Okogie as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17 pts a night over his last 5 (-11.3 vs season). Injury swing: Jusuf Nurkic would normally take it; instead it falls to Jaxson Hayes (+0.2 pts). Model lines Wembanyama at 27.1 pts (range 23–31.3) vs a 28.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (38%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (55%), projected 120–119, ~239 total at 100.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.1 | 19.5 | 19 | 56% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 6.4 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 12% | Under |
| Assists | 9.4 | 9 | 9.5 | 40% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 34.9 | 33.6 | 35 | 38% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 25.5 | 24.6 | 25.5 | 40% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.5 | 28.5 | 28.5 | 50% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Stephon Castle draws Utah Jazz's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jaren Jackson Jr. (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Josh Okogie secondary, with Jaxson Hayes as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-2.9 vs season). Model lines Castle at 19.5 pts (range 16.6–22.5) vs a 19 line — a lean to clear it (56%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (55%), projected 120–119, ~239 total at 100.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.5 | 25.9 | 28.5 | 28% | Under |
| Rebounds | 4.1 | 3.2 | 4 | 25% | Under |
| Assists | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 39.7 | 36.3 | 39.5 | 26% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 32.6 | 29.1 | 32.5 | 22% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 35.6 | 33 | 35.5 | 32% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Keyonte George draws San Antonio Spurs's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Stephon Castle (solid defender, 74 Perimeter D), Devin Vassell secondary, with Victor Wembanyama as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 14.6 pts a night over his last 5 (-13.9 vs season). Model lines George at 25.9 pts (range 22–29.9) vs a 28.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (28%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (55%), projected 119–120, ~239 total at 100.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.3 | 28.7 | 28.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 6.8 | 5.3 | 7 | 8% | Under |
| Assists | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37.4 | 36.7 | 37.5 | 44% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 35.1 | 34 | 35 | 42% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 30.6 | 31.4 | 30.5 | 57% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Lauri Markkanen draws San Antonio Spurs's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Stephon Castle (solid defender, 74 Perimeter D), Devin Vassell secondary, with Victor Wembanyama as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 25.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-2.5 vs season). Model lines Markkanen at 28.7 pts (range 24.3–33.1) vs a 28.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (55%), projected 119–120, ~239 total at 100.2 pace.