Matchup model · Saturday, October 17, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.4 | 19 | 18.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 30% | Under |
| Assists | 2 | 2.4 | 2 | 62% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 22.8 | 23.3 | 23 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 20.8 | 20.9 | 21 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 20.4 | 21.4 | 20.5 | 60% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Zach LaVine draws San Antonio Spurs's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Stephon Castle (solid defender, 74 Perimeter D), Devin Vassell secondary, with Luke Kornet as the low-man/help.
Model lines LaVine at 19 pts (range 16.1–21.9) vs a 18.5 line — a lean to clear it (56%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (77%), projected 114–121, ~235 total at 99.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.1 | 17.1 | 18 | 38% | Under |
| Rebounds | 13 | 10 | 13 | 9% | Under |
| Assists | 5.9 | 5.2 | 6 | 27% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37 | 32.4 | 37 | 16% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 31.1 | 27.2 | 31 | 17% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 24 | 22.4 | 24 | 32% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Domantas Sabonis draws San Antonio Spurs's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Victor Wembanyama (elite stopper, 88 Rim protection), Luke Kornet secondary, with Stephon Castle as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 12.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-5.3 vs season). Model lines Sabonis at 17.1 pts (range 14.4–19.8) vs a 18 line — an uphill case to clear it (38%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (77%), projected 114–121, ~235 total at 99.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.3 | 26.6 | 28.5 | 34% | Under |
| Rebounds | 12.6 | 9.8 | 12.5 | 11% | Under |
| Assists | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 44.4 | 40.3 | 44.5 | 23% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 40.9 | 36.5 | 41 | 20% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 31.8 | 30.4 | 32 | 37% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Victor Wembanyama draws Sacramento Kings's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Ben Simmons (elite stopper, 92 Perimeter D), De'Andre Hunter secondary.
He's cold — 17 pts a night over his last 5 (-11.3 vs season). Model lines Wembanyama at 26.6 pts (range 22.5–30.7) vs a 28.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (34%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (77%), projected 121–114, ~235 total at 99.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.1 | 19.2 | 19 | 52% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 6.4 | 5 | 6.5 | 11% | Under |
| Assists | 9.4 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 38% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 34.9 | 33 | 35 | 34% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 25.5 | 24.2 | 25.5 | 36% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.5 | 28 | 28.5 | 46% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Stephon Castle draws Sacramento Kings's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Ben Simmons (elite stopper, 92 Perimeter D), De'Andre Hunter secondary.
He's cold — 16.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-2.9 vs season). Model lines Castle at 19.2 pts (range 16.3–22.1) vs a 19 line — a lean to clear it (52%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (77%), projected 121–114, ~235 total at 99.2 pace.