Matchup model · Saturday, October 17, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24.2 | 23.4 | 24 | 44% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5.4 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 14% | Under |
| Assists | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.7 | 32 | 33.5 | 37% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 29.6 | 27.6 | 29.5 | 32% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.3 | 27.8 | 28.5 | 43% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Brandon Miller draws Memphis Grizzlies's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jaylen Wells (solid defender, 76 Perimeter D), Kris Murray secondary, with Zach Edey as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.6 pts a night over his last 5 (-7.6 vs season). Model lines Miller at 23.4 pts (range 19.8–27) vs a 24 line — an uphill case to clear it (44%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Memphis Grizzlies (50%), projected 116–117, ~233 total at 98.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.6 | 23.4 | 21.5 | 68% | Over |
| Rebounds | 3.9 | 3 | 4 | 21% | Under |
| Assists | 4.8 | 5.4 | 5 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 30.3 | 31.8 | 30.5 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 25.5 | 26.4 | 25.5 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 26.4 | 28.7 | 26.5 | 69% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Coby White draws Memphis Grizzlies's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jaylen Wells (solid defender, 76 Perimeter D), Kris Murray secondary, with Zach Edey as the low-man/help.
He's hot — 24.2 pts a night over his last 5 (+2.6 vs season). Model lines White at 23.4 pts (range 19.8–27) vs a 21.5 line — a good chance to clear it (68%).
Biggest edge: recent form — heating up — +2.6 over his season pace.
Model favors Memphis Grizzlies (50%), projected 116–117, ~233 total at 98.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 17.8 | 19 | 18 | 62% | Over |
| Rebounds | 3.3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 21% | Under |
| Assists | 2 | 1.8 | 2 | 42% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 23.1 | 23.3 | 23 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 21.1 | 21.5 | 21 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 19.8 | 20.7 | 20 | 59% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Jerami Grant draws Charlotte Hornets's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Sion James (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Royce O'Neale secondary, with Naz Reid as the low-man/help.
He's hot — 20.2 pts a night over his last 5 (+2.4 vs season). Model lines Grant at 19 pts (range 16.1–21.9) vs a 18 line — a good chance to clear it (62%).
Biggest edge: recent form — heating up — +2.4 over his season pace.
Model favors Memphis Grizzlies (50%), projected 117–116, ~233 total at 98.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 15.6 | 15.2 | 15.5 | 46% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 4.6 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 21% | Under |
| Assists | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 22.1 | 21 | 22 | 37% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 20.2 | 18.8 | 20 | 33% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 17.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 50% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Cameron Boozer draws Charlotte Hornets's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Sion James (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Royce O'Neale secondary, with Naz Reid as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 12.3 pts a night over his last 3 (-3.3 vs season). Model lines Boozer at 15.2 pts (range 12.5–17.9) vs a 15.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (46%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Memphis Grizzlies (50%), projected 117–116, ~233 total at 98.5 pace.