Matchup model · Thursday, October 8, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 32 | 31.2 | 32 | 44% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 4.3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 16% | Under |
| Assists | 7.8 | 7.2 | 8 | 31% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 44.1 | 41.7 | 44 | 34% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 36.3 | 34.5 | 36.5 | 35% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 39.8 | 38.3 | 40 | 39% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Tyrese Maxey draws Brooklyn Nets's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Terance Mann (strong defender, 78 Perimeter D), Cam Thomas secondary, with Day'Ron Sharpe as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 22.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-9.2 vs season). Model lines Maxey at 31.2 pts (range 26.4–35.9) vs a 32 line — an uphill case to clear it (44%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Philadelphia 76ers (53%), projected 119–119, ~238 total at 98.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 29.2 | 27.3 | 29 | 35% | Under |
| Rebounds | 7.6 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 11% | Under |
| Assists | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 41.2 | 37.7 | 41 | 27% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 36.8 | 33.2 | 37 | 22% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 33.6 | 31.8 | 33.5 | 37% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Joel Embiid draws Brooklyn Nets's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Day'Ron Sharpe (strong defender, 82 Rim protection), Michael Porter Jr. secondary, with Terance Mann as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.6 pts a night over his last 5 (-12.6 vs season). Model lines Embiid at 27.3 pts (range 23.1–31.4) vs a 29 line — an uphill case to clear it (35%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Philadelphia 76ers (53%), projected 119–119, ~238 total at 98.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 27.8 | 26.1 | 28 | 34% | Under |
| Rebounds | 7.7 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 11% | Under |
| Assists | 3.8 | 3.7 | 4 | 39% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 39.3 | 35.7 | 39.5 | 22% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 35.5 | 32 | 35.5 | 24% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 31.6 | 29.8 | 31.5 | 36% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Michael Porter Jr. draws Philadelphia 76ers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to VJ Edgecombe (solid defender, 76 Perimeter D), Jaylen Brown secondary, with Joel Embiid as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17.4 pts a night over his last 5 (-10.4 vs season). Model lines Jr. at 26.1 pts (range 22.1–30.1) vs a 28 line — an uphill case to clear it (34%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Philadelphia 76ers (53%), projected 119–119, ~238 total at 98.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.1 | 20.7 | 20 | 58% | Over |
| Rebounds | 6.1 | 4.7 | 6 | 14% | Under |
| Assists | 5 | 4.8 | 5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.2 | 30.2 | 31 | 42% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 26.2 | 25.4 | 26 | 44% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 25.1 | 25.5 | 25 | 55% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Julius Randle draws Philadelphia 76ers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to VJ Edgecombe (solid defender, 76 Perimeter D), Jaylen Brown secondary, with Joel Embiid as the low-man/help.
Model lines Randle at 20.7 pts (range 17.5–23.9) vs a 20 line — a lean to clear it (58%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Philadelphia 76ers (53%), projected 119–119, ~238 total at 98.3 pace.