Matchup model · Monday, October 12, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 27.8 | 26.6 | 28 | 38% | Under |
| Rebounds | 7.7 | 6 | 7.5 | 13% | Under |
| Assists | 3.8 | 3.7 | 4 | 41% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 39.3 | 36.3 | 39.5 | 27% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 35.5 | 32.6 | 35.5 | 28% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 31.6 | 30.3 | 31.5 | 40% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Michael Porter Jr. draws Washington Wizards's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Bilal Coulibaly (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Anthony Davis secondary, with Deandre Ayton as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17.4 pts a night over his last 5 (-10.4 vs season). Model lines Jr. at 26.6 pts (range 22.5–30.7) vs a 28 line — an uphill case to clear it (38%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Washington Wizards (65%), projected 119–122, ~241 total at 98.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.1 | 21.1 | 20 | 62% | Over |
| Rebounds | 6.1 | 4.8 | 6 | 15% | Under |
| Assists | 5 | 4.9 | 5 | 46% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.2 | 30.7 | 31 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 26.2 | 25.8 | 26 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 25.1 | 26 | 25 | 59% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Julius Randle draws Washington Wizards's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Bilal Coulibaly (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Anthony Davis secondary, with Deandre Ayton as the low-man/help.
Model lines Randle at 21.1 pts (range 17.9–24.3) vs a 20 line — a good chance to clear it (62%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Washington Wizards (65%), projected 119–122, ~241 total at 98.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.5 | 22.9 | 23.5 | 44% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 11.5 | 9 | 11.5 | 10% | Under |
| Assists | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 42% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 38.7 | 35.1 | 38.5 | 25% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 35 | 31.9 | 35 | 26% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 27.2 | 26.2 | 27 | 42% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Anthony Davis draws Brooklyn Nets's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Day'Ron Sharpe (strong defender, 82 Rim protection), Michael Porter Jr. secondary, with Terance Mann as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-6.7 vs season). Model lines Davis at 22.9 pts (range 19.4–26.4) vs a 23.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (44%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Washington Wizards (65%), projected 122–119, ~241 total at 98.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.2 | 21.7 | 22 | 47% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 3.1 | 2.4 | 3 | 31% | Under |
| Assists | 9.8 | 9.6 | 10 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35.1 | 33.7 | 35 | 39% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 25.3 | 24.1 | 25.5 | 35% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 32 | 31.3 | 32 | 44% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Trae Young draws Brooklyn Nets's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Terance Mann (strong defender, 78 Perimeter D), Cam Thomas secondary, with Day'Ron Sharpe as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 15.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-6.4 vs season). Model lines Young at 21.7 pts (range 18.4–25) vs a 22 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (47%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Washington Wizards (65%), projected 122–119, ~241 total at 98.9 pace.