Matchup model · Wednesday, October 14, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 29.9 | 27.6 | 30 | 30% | Under |
| Rebounds | 7.3 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 8% | Under |
| Assists | 8.4 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 23% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 45.6 | 40.5 | 45.5 | 19% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 37.2 | 33.3 | 37 | 23% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 38.3 | 34.8 | 38.5 | 25% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Deni Avdija draws Sacramento Kings's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to De'Andre Hunter (solid defender, 74 Perimeter D), Nique Clifford secondary, with Domantas Sabonis as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 14.4 pts a night over his last 5 (-15.5 vs season). Model lines Avdija at 27.6 pts (range 23.4–31.8) vs a 30 line — an uphill case to clear it (30%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (55%), projected 120–119, ~239 total at 99.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.7 | 23.4 | 22.5 | 59% | Over |
| Rebounds | 4.4 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 19% | Under |
| Assists | 6.7 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.8 | 33.7 | 34 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.1 | 26.8 | 27 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 29.4 | 30.3 | 29.5 | 57% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Damian Lillard draws Sacramento Kings's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to De'Andre Hunter (solid defender, 74 Perimeter D), Nique Clifford secondary, with Domantas Sabonis as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 20.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-2.5 vs season). Model lines Lillard at 23.4 pts (range 19.8–27) vs a 22.5 line — a lean to clear it (59%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (55%), projected 120–119, ~239 total at 99.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.4 | 19 | 18.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 30% | Under |
| Assists | 2 | 2.4 | 2 | 63% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 22.8 | 23.3 | 23 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 20.8 | 20.9 | 21 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 20.4 | 21.4 | 20.5 | 61% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Zach LaVine draws Portland Trail Blazers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jrue Holiday (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Toumani Camara secondary, with Donovan Clingan as the low-man/help.
Model lines LaVine at 19 pts (range 16.1–21.9) vs a 18.5 line — a lean to clear it (57%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (55%), projected 119–120, ~239 total at 99.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.1 | 17.3 | 18 | 40% | Under |
| Rebounds | 13 | 10.1 | 13 | 9% | Under |
| Assists | 5.9 | 5.3 | 6 | 28% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37 | 32.6 | 37 | 17% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 31.1 | 27.3 | 31 | 19% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 24 | 22.5 | 24 | 34% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Domantas Sabonis draws Portland Trail Blazers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Donovan Clingan (elite stopper, 88 Rim protection), Yang Hansen secondary, with Jrue Holiday as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 12.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-5.3 vs season). Model lines Sabonis at 17.3 pts (range 14.6–20) vs a 18 line — an uphill case to clear it (40%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (55%), projected 119–120, ~239 total at 99.2 pace.