Matchup model · Thursday, October 8, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 25.4 | 23.6 | 25.5 | 32% | Under |
| Rebounds | 2.7 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 36% | Under |
| Assists | 11.7 | 11 | 11.5 | 42% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 39.8 | 36.6 | 40 | 25% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 28.1 | 25.7 | 28 | 27% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 37.1 | 34.5 | 37 | 33% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Trae Young draws New York Knicks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to OG Anunoby (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Miles McBride secondary, with Karl-Anthony Towns as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 15.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-9.6 vs season). Model lines Young at 23.6 pts (range 20–27.2) vs a 25.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (32%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New York Knicks (71%), projected 117–122, ~239 total at 98.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 25.1 | 23.5 | 25 | 36% | Under |
| Rebounds | 12.1 | 9.3 | 12 | 10% | Under |
| Assists | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 36% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 40.7 | 35.9 | 40.5 | 18% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 37.2 | 32.9 | 37 | 20% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.6 | 26.6 | 28.5 | 33% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Anthony Davis draws New York Knicks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Karl-Anthony Towns (elite stopper, 88 Rim protection), Josh Hart secondary, with Miles McBride as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-8.3 vs season). Model lines Davis at 23.5 pts (range 19.9–27.1) vs a 25 line — an uphill case to clear it (36%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New York Knicks (71%), projected 117–122, ~239 total at 98.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 26.8 | 25.7 | 27 | 38% | Under |
| Rebounds | 3.3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 22% | Under |
| Assists | 7.1 | 6.6 | 7 | 41% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37.2 | 34.9 | 37 | 33% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 30.1 | 28.3 | 30 | 34% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 33.9 | 32.3 | 34 | 37% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Brunson draws Washington Wizards's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Bilal Coulibaly (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Anthony Davis secondary, with Deandre Ayton as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17 pts a night over his last 5 (-9.8 vs season). Model lines Brunson at 25.7 pts (range 21.8–29.6) vs a 27 line — an uphill case to clear it (38%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New York Knicks (71%), projected 122–117, ~239 total at 98.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.2 | 19.8 | 20 | 47% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 12.6 | 9.8 | 12.5 | 11% | Under |
| Assists | 3 | 2.8 | 3 | 44% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35.8 | 32.4 | 36 | 22% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 32.8 | 29.6 | 33 | 22% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 23.2 | 22.6 | 23 | 45% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Karl-Anthony Towns draws Washington Wizards's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Deandre Ayton (strong defender, 84 Rim protection), Alex Sarr secondary, with Bilal Coulibaly as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 14.4 pts a night over his last 5 (-5.8 vs season). Model lines Towns at 19.8 pts (range 16.7–22.8) vs a 20 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (47%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New York Knicks (71%), projected 122–117, ~239 total at 98.9 pace.