Matchup model · Wednesday, October 14, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 25.1 | 23.1 | 25 | 32% | Under |
| Rebounds | 6.6 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 12% | Under |
| Assists | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35.8 | 32.4 | 36 | 21% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 31.7 | 28.2 | 31.5 | 22% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 29.2 | 27.3 | 29 | 35% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Pascal Siakam draws Oklahoma City Thunder's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Alex Caruso (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Cason Wallace secondary, with Isaiah Hartenstein as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17 pts a night over his last 5 (-8.1 vs season). Model lines Siakam at 23.1 pts (range 19.6–26.7) vs a 25 line — an uphill case to clear it (32%).
Biggest edge: pace — up-tempo game — more possessions to fill the box score.
Model favors Oklahoma City Thunder (78%), projected 115–122, ~236 total at 99.7 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.4 | 17.3 | 19.5 | 23% | Under |
| Rebounds | 3 | 2.3 | 3 | 28% | Under |
| Assists | 9 | 8.2 | 9 | 35% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.4 | 27.9 | 31.5 | 18% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 22.4 | 19.6 | 22.5 | 17% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.4 | 25.6 | 28.5 | 24% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Andrew Nembhard draws Oklahoma City Thunder's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Alex Caruso (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Cason Wallace secondary, with Isaiah Hartenstein as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 11 pts a night over his last 5 (-8.4 vs season). Model lines Nembhard at 17.3 pts (range 14.6–20) vs a 19.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (23%).
Biggest edge: pace — up-tempo game — more possessions to fill the box score.
Model favors Oklahoma City Thunder (78%), projected 115–122, ~236 total at 99.7 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 36.2 | 35.9 | 36 | 49% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 4.4 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 19% | Under |
| Assists | 7.8 | 7.5 | 8 | 39% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 48.4 | 46.9 | 48.5 | 40% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 40.6 | 39.4 | 40.5 | 42% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 44 | 43.4 | 44 | 47% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws Indiana Pacers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Andrew Nembhard (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Aaron Nesmith secondary, with Ivica Zubac as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 28.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-8 vs season). Model lines Gilgeous-Alexander at 35.9 pts (range 30.4–41.4) vs a 36 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (49%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Oklahoma City Thunder (78%), projected 122–115, ~236 total at 99.7 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.2 | 22.2 | 22 | 52% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 5.1 | 4 | 5 | 20% | Under |
| Assists | 6.1 | 6.5 | 6 | 62% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.4 | 32.6 | 33.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.3 | 26.2 | 27.5 | 37% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.3 | 28.6 | 28.5 | 51% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Williams draws Indiana Pacers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Andrew Nembhard (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Aaron Nesmith secondary, with Ivica Zubac as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-4.4 vs season). Model lines Williams at 22.2 pts (range 18.8–25.5) vs a 22 line — a lean to clear it (52%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Oklahoma City Thunder (78%), projected 122–115, ~236 total at 99.7 pace.