Matchup model · Friday, October 16, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 36.2 | 34.8 | 36 | 42% | Under |
| Rebounds | 4.4 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 17% | Under |
| Assists | 7.8 | 7.3 | 8 | 35% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 48.4 | 45.5 | 48.5 | 32% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 40.6 | 38.2 | 40.5 | 34% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 44 | 42.1 | 44 | 39% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws Houston Rockets's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Amen Thompson (strong defender, 86 Perimeter D), Fred VanVleet secondary, with Alperen Sengun as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 28.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-8 vs season). Model lines Gilgeous-Alexander at 34.8 pts (range 29.5–40.1) vs a 36 line — an uphill case to clear it (42%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Houston Rockets (54%), projected 116–116, ~232 total at 98.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.2 | 21.5 | 22 | 44% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5.1 | 3.9 | 5 | 18% | Under |
| Assists | 6.1 | 6.3 | 6 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.4 | 31.7 | 33.5 | 34% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.3 | 25.4 | 27.5 | 29% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.3 | 27.8 | 28.5 | 44% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Williams draws Houston Rockets's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Amen Thompson (strong defender, 86 Perimeter D), Fred VanVleet secondary, with Alperen Sengun as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-4.4 vs season). Model lines Williams at 21.5 pts (range 18.2–24.8) vs a 22 line — an uphill case to clear it (44%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Houston Rockets (54%), projected 116–116, ~232 total at 98.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24.3 | 23.8 | 24.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5 | 3.8 | 5 | 16% | Under |
| Assists | 4.6 | 4 | 4.5 | 34% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.9 | 31.6 | 34 | 29% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 29.3 | 27.6 | 29.5 | 32% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.9 | 27.8 | 29 | 39% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Kevin Durant draws Oklahoma City Thunder's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Alex Caruso (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Cason Wallace secondary, with Chet Holmgren as the low-man/help.
Model lines Durant at 23.8 pts (range 20.1–27.4) vs a 24.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (43%).
Biggest edge: scheme fit — drop coverage concedes the pull-up/mid-range he likes.
Model favors Houston Rockets (54%), projected 116–116, ~232 total at 98.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.2 | 21.4 | 22 | 43% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 9.2 | 7 | 9 | 10% | Under |
| Assists | 7 | 7.3 | 7 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 38.4 | 35.7 | 38.5 | 29% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 31.4 | 28.3 | 31.5 | 23% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 29.2 | 28.7 | 29 | 47% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Alperen Sengun draws Oklahoma City Thunder's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Chet Holmgren (elite stopper, 92 Rim protection), Isaiah Hartenstein secondary, with Alex Caruso as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 19.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-3 vs season). Model lines Sengun at 21.4 pts (range 18.1–24.6) vs a 22 line — an uphill case to clear it (43%).
Biggest edge: venue — home floor — small boost.
Model favors Houston Rockets (54%), projected 116–116, ~232 total at 98.2 pace.