Matchup model · Saturday, October 17, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.5 | 25.9 | 28.5 | 28% | Under |
| Rebounds | 4.1 | 3.2 | 4 | 25% | Under |
| Assists | 7.1 | 7.1 | 7 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 39.7 | 36.2 | 39.5 | 26% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 32.6 | 29.1 | 32.5 | 22% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 35.6 | 33 | 35.5 | 32% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Keyonte George draws Phoenix Suns's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jordan Goodwin (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Ryan Dunn secondary, with Khaman Maluach as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 14.6 pts a night over his last 5 (-13.9 vs season). Model lines George at 25.9 pts (range 22–29.9) vs a 28.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (28%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Phoenix Suns (71%), projected 117–122, ~239 total at 99.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.3 | 28.7 | 28.5 | 52% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 6.8 | 5.3 | 7 | 8% | Under |
| Assists | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37.4 | 36.6 | 37.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 35.1 | 34 | 35 | 42% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 30.6 | 31.4 | 30.5 | 57% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Lauri Markkanen draws Phoenix Suns's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jordan Goodwin (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Ryan Dunn secondary, with Khaman Maluach as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 25.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-2.5 vs season). Model lines Markkanen at 28.7 pts (range 24.3–33.1) vs a 28.5 line — a lean to clear it (52%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Phoenix Suns (71%), projected 117–122, ~239 total at 99.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.6 | 28.5 | 28.5 | 50% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 4 | 3.1 | 4 | 24% | Under |
| Assists | 6.8 | 6.8 | 7 | 45% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 39.4 | 38.4 | 39.5 | 42% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 32.6 | 31.6 | 32.5 | 42% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 35.4 | 35.2 | 35.5 | 48% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Devin Booker draws Utah Jazz's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jaren Jackson Jr. (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Josh Okogie secondary, with Jaxson Hayes as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 21.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-6.8 vs season). Model lines Booker at 28.5 pts (range 24.1–32.8) vs a 28.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (50%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Phoenix Suns (71%), projected 122–117, ~239 total at 99.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.3 | 22.9 | 23.5 | 44% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 3.8 | 3 | 4 | 20% | Under |
| Assists | 2 | 2.2 | 2 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 29.1 | 28.1 | 29 | 41% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.1 | 25.9 | 27 | 38% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 25.3 | 25.1 | 25.5 | 46% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Dillon Brooks draws Utah Jazz's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jaren Jackson Jr. (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Josh Okogie secondary, with Jaxson Hayes as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.6 pts a night over his last 5 (-6.7 vs season). Model lines Brooks at 22.9 pts (range 19.4–26.4) vs a 23.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (44%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Phoenix Suns (71%), projected 122–117, ~239 total at 99.4 pace.