Matchup model · Tuesday, October 20, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 32 | 30.3 | 32 | 37% | Under |
| Rebounds | 4.3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 16% | Under |
| Assists | 7.8 | 7.1 | 8 | 29% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 44.1 | 40.7 | 44 | 28% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 36.3 | 33.6 | 36.5 | 28% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 39.8 | 37.4 | 40 | 33% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Tyrese Maxey draws New York Knicks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to OG Anunoby (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Bruce Brown secondary, with Karl-Anthony Towns as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 22.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-9.2 vs season). Model lines Maxey at 30.3 pts (range 25.7–35) vs a 32 line — an uphill case to clear it (37%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New York Knicks (59%), projected 117–119, ~236 total at 98.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 29.2 | 26.5 | 29 | 29% | Under |
| Rebounds | 7.6 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 10% | Under |
| Assists | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 41.2 | 36.9 | 41 | 21% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 36.8 | 32.4 | 37 | 17% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 33.6 | 31 | 33.5 | 31% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Joel Embiid draws New York Knicks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Karl-Anthony Towns (elite stopper, 88 Rim protection), Andre Drummond secondary, with Bruce Brown as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.6 pts a night over his last 5 (-12.6 vs season). Model lines Embiid at 26.5 pts (range 22.5–30.6) vs a 29 line — an uphill case to clear it (29%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New York Knicks (59%), projected 117–119, ~236 total at 98.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 26.8 | 25.2 | 27 | 34% | Under |
| Rebounds | 3.3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 21% | Under |
| Assists | 7.1 | 6.5 | 7 | 38% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37.2 | 34.2 | 37 | 28% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 30.1 | 27.7 | 30 | 29% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 33.9 | 31.7 | 34 | 33% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Brunson draws Philadelphia 76ers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (strong defender, 78 Perimeter D), VJ Edgecombe secondary, with Joel Embiid as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17 pts a night over his last 5 (-9.8 vs season). Model lines Brunson at 25.2 pts (range 21.3–29.1) vs a 27 line — an uphill case to clear it (34%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New York Knicks (59%), projected 119–117, ~236 total at 98.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.2 | 19.3 | 20 | 42% | Under |
| Rebounds | 12.6 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 9% | Under |
| Assists | 3 | 2.8 | 3 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35.8 | 31.8 | 36 | 17% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 32.8 | 29 | 33 | 18% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 23.2 | 22.1 | 23 | 40% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Karl-Anthony Towns draws Philadelphia 76ers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Joel Embiid (strong defender, 83 Rim protection), Adem Bona secondary, with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 14.4 pts a night over his last 5 (-5.8 vs season). Model lines Towns at 19.3 pts (range 16.4–22.3) vs a 20 line — an uphill case to clear it (42%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New York Knicks (59%), projected 119–117, ~236 total at 98.3 pace.