Matchup model · Wednesday, October 21, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 36.2 | 35.3 | 36 | 45% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 4.4 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 18% | Under |
| Assists | 7.8 | 7.4 | 8 | 36% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 48.4 | 46 | 48.5 | 35% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 40.6 | 38.7 | 40.5 | 38% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 44 | 42.6 | 44 | 42% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws San Antonio Spurs's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Stephon Castle (solid defender, 74 Perimeter D), Devin Vassell secondary, with Luke Kornet as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 28.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-8 vs season). Model lines Gilgeous-Alexander at 35.3 pts (range 29.9–40.7) vs a 36 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (45%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (52%), projected 116–116, ~232 total at 99.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.2 | 21.8 | 22 | 47% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5.1 | 3.9 | 5 | 19% | Under |
| Assists | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.4 | 32.1 | 33.5 | 38% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.3 | 25.7 | 27.5 | 32% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.3 | 28.1 | 28.5 | 47% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Williams draws San Antonio Spurs's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Stephon Castle (solid defender, 74 Perimeter D), Devin Vassell secondary, with Luke Kornet as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-4.4 vs season). Model lines Williams at 21.8 pts (range 18.4–25.1) vs a 22 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (47%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (52%), projected 116–116, ~232 total at 99.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.3 | 25.5 | 28.5 | 24% | Under |
| Rebounds | 12.6 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 9% | Under |
| Assists | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 44.4 | 38.8 | 44.5 | 15% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 40.9 | 35.1 | 41 | 13% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 31.8 | 29.2 | 32 | 27% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Victor Wembanyama draws Oklahoma City Thunder's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Alex Caruso (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Cason Wallace secondary, with Chet Holmgren as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17 pts a night over his last 5 (-11.3 vs season). Model lines Wembanyama at 25.5 pts (range 21.6–29.3) vs a 28.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (24%).
Biggest edge: pace — up-tempo game — more possessions to fill the box score.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (52%), projected 116–116, ~232 total at 99.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.1 | 18.4 | 19 | 42% | Under |
| Rebounds | 6.4 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 9% | Under |
| Assists | 9.4 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 34% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 34.9 | 31.9 | 35 | 25% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 25.5 | 23.3 | 25.5 | 26% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.5 | 27 | 28.5 | 36% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Stephon Castle draws Oklahoma City Thunder's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Alex Caruso (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Cason Wallace secondary, with Chet Holmgren as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-2.9 vs season). Model lines Castle at 18.4 pts (range 15.6–21.2) vs a 19 line — an uphill case to clear it (42%).
Biggest edge: pace — up-tempo game — more possessions to fill the box score.
Model favors San Antonio Spurs (52%), projected 116–116, ~232 total at 99.2 pace.