Matchup model · Wednesday, October 7, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 33.4 | 33.2 | 33.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5.2 | 4.1 | 5 | 22% | Under |
| Assists | 4.2 | 4 | 4 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 42.8 | 41.3 | 43 | 38% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 38.6 | 37.3 | 38.5 | 41% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 37.6 | 37.2 | 37.5 | 48% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Anthony Edwards draws Indiana Pacers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Andrew Nembhard (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Aaron Nesmith secondary, with Ivica Zubac as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 26.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-7.2 vs season). Model lines Edwards at 33.2 pts (range 28.1–38.3) vs a 33.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (48%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Indiana Pacers (55%), projected 118–120, ~238 total at 99.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.5 | 20 | 19.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.7 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 25% | Under |
| Assists | 7 | 7 | 7 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.2 | 30.8 | 31 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 24.2 | 23.7 | 24 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 26.5 | 27.1 | 26.5 | 55% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
LaMelo Ball draws Indiana Pacers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Andrew Nembhard (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Aaron Nesmith secondary, with Ivica Zubac as the low-man/help.
Model lines Ball at 20 pts (range 17–23.1) vs a 19.5 line — a lean to clear it (56%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Indiana Pacers (55%), projected 118–120, ~238 total at 99.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24.7 | 23.5 | 24.5 | 40% | Under |
| Rebounds | 6.6 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 13% | Under |
| Assists | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35.2 | 32.7 | 35 | 31% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 31.3 | 28.6 | 31.5 | 25% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.6 | 27.6 | 28.5 | 42% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Pascal Siakam draws Minnesota Timberwolves's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jaden McDaniels (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Ayo Dosunmu secondary, with Rudy Gobert as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17 pts a night over his last 5 (-7.7 vs season). Model lines Siakam at 23.5 pts (range 19.9–27.1) vs a 24.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (40%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Indiana Pacers (55%), projected 120–118, ~238 total at 99.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.4 | 17.8 | 19.5 | 29% | Under |
| Rebounds | 3 | 2.3 | 3 | 29% | Under |
| Assists | 9 | 8.3 | 9 | 37% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.4 | 28.5 | 31.5 | 23% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 22.4 | 20.2 | 22.5 | 22% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.4 | 26.2 | 28.5 | 29% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Andrew Nembhard draws Minnesota Timberwolves's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jaden McDaniels (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Ayo Dosunmu secondary, with Rudy Gobert as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 11 pts a night over his last 5 (-8.4 vs season). Model lines Nembhard at 17.8 pts (range 15.1–20.6) vs a 19.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (29%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Indiana Pacers (55%), projected 120–118, ~238 total at 99.8 pace.