Matchup model · Monday, October 12, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 33.4 | 32.3 | 33.5 | 41% | Under |
| Rebounds | 5.2 | 4 | 5 | 20% | Under |
| Assists | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 42.8 | 40.2 | 43 | 31% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 38.6 | 36.3 | 38.5 | 34% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 37.6 | 36.2 | 37.5 | 41% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Anthony Edwards draws New York Knicks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to OG Anunoby (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Miles McBride secondary, with Karl-Anthony Towns as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 26.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-7.2 vs season). Model lines Edwards at 32.3 pts (range 27.4–37.3) vs a 33.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (41%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New York Knicks (63%), projected 115–118, ~233 total at 98.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 50% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.7 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 23% | Under |
| Assists | 7 | 6.9 | 7 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.2 | 30 | 31 | 40% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 24.2 | 23.1 | 24 | 40% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 26.5 | 26.4 | 26.5 | 49% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
LaMelo Ball draws New York Knicks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to OG Anunoby (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Miles McBride secondary, with Karl-Anthony Towns as the low-man/help.
Model lines Ball at 19.5 pts (range 16.5–22.5) vs a 19.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (50%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New York Knicks (63%), projected 115–118, ~233 total at 98.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 26.8 | 24.9 | 27 | 31% | Under |
| Rebounds | 3.3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 21% | Under |
| Assists | 7.1 | 6.5 | 7 | 37% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37.2 | 34 | 37 | 26% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 30.1 | 27.5 | 30 | 27% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 33.9 | 31.4 | 34 | 31% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Brunson draws Minnesota Timberwolves's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jaden McDaniels (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Ayo Dosunmu secondary, with Rudy Gobert as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17 pts a night over his last 5 (-9.8 vs season). Model lines Brunson at 24.9 pts (range 21.1–28.8) vs a 27 line — an uphill case to clear it (31%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New York Knicks (63%), projected 118–115, ~233 total at 98.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.2 | 19.1 | 20 | 40% | Under |
| Rebounds | 12.6 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 9% | Under |
| Assists | 3 | 2.8 | 3 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35.8 | 31.6 | 36 | 16% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 32.8 | 28.8 | 33 | 17% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 23.2 | 21.9 | 23 | 38% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Karl-Anthony Towns draws Minnesota Timberwolves's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Rudy Gobert (elite stopper, 88 Rim protection), Joan Beringer secondary, with Ayo Dosunmu as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 14.4 pts a night over his last 5 (-5.8 vs season). Model lines Towns at 19.1 pts (range 16.2–22.1) vs a 20 line — an uphill case to clear it (40%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New York Knicks (63%), projected 118–115, ~233 total at 98.4 pace.