Matchup model · Thursday, October 8, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.3 | 23 | 23.5 | 45% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 3.7 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 30% | Under |
| Assists | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.9 | 30.7 | 32 | 38% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 27 | 25.9 | 27 | 39% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.2 | 27.8 | 28 | 48% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Stephen Curry draws Portland Trail Blazers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jrue Holiday (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Toumani Camara secondary, with Donovan Clingan as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 19.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-4.1 vs season). Model lines Curry at 23 pts (range 19.5–26.5) vs a 23.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (45%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (68%), projected 116–121, ~237 total at 99.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.9 | 19.1 | 19 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 6.3 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 9% | Under |
| Assists | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 42% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 27.5 | 26.3 | 27.5 | 37% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 25.2 | 24 | 25 | 39% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 21.2 | 21.4 | 21 | 54% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Kristaps Porzingis draws Portland Trail Blazers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Donovan Clingan (elite stopper, 88 Rim protection), Yang Hansen secondary, with Jrue Holiday as the low-man/help.
Model lines Porzingis at 19.1 pts (range 16.2–22) vs a 19 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (68%), projected 116–121, ~237 total at 99.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 29.9 | 26.9 | 30 | 25% | Under |
| Rebounds | 7.3 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 7% | Under |
| Assists | 8.4 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 22% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 45.6 | 39.8 | 45.5 | 15% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 37.2 | 32.6 | 37 | 18% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 38.3 | 34.1 | 38.5 | 21% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Deni Avdija draws Golden State Warriors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Draymond Green (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), De'Anthony Melton secondary, with Al Horford as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 14.4 pts a night over his last 5 (-15.5 vs season). Model lines Avdija at 26.9 pts (range 22.8–31) vs a 30 line — an uphill case to clear it (25%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (68%), projected 121–116, ~237 total at 99.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.7 | 22.8 | 22.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.4 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 18% | Under |
| Assists | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.8 | 33.1 | 34 | 42% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.1 | 26.2 | 27 | 42% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 29.4 | 29.7 | 29.5 | 51% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Damian Lillard draws Golden State Warriors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Draymond Green (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), De'Anthony Melton secondary, with Al Horford as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 20.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-2.5 vs season). Model lines Lillard at 22.8 pts (range 19.3–26.3) vs a 22.5 line — a lean to clear it (53%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (68%), projected 121–116, ~237 total at 99.3 pace.