Matchup model · Monday, October 12, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 29.9 | 27.1 | 30 | 26% | Under |
| Rebounds | 7.3 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 6% | Under |
| Assists | 8.4 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 20% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 45.6 | 39.7 | 45.5 | 15% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 37.2 | 32.6 | 37 | 19% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 38.3 | 34.1 | 38.5 | 21% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Deni Avdija draws London Lions's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
He's cold — 14.4 pts a night over his last 5 (-15.5 vs season). Model lines Avdija at 27.1 pts (range 22.9–31.2) vs a 30 line — an uphill case to clear it (26%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (82%), projected 120–111, ~231 total at 96.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.7 | 23 | 22.5 | 55% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.4 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 17% | Under |
| Assists | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.8 | 33 | 34 | 42% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.1 | 26.3 | 27 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 29.4 | 29.7 | 29.5 | 52% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Damian Lillard draws London Lions's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
He's cold — 20.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-2.5 vs season). Model lines Lillard at 23 pts (range 19.4–26.5) vs a 22.5 line — a lean to clear it (55%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (82%), projected 120–111, ~231 total at 96.9 pace.