Matchup model · Thursday, October 8, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.8 | 21.9 | 23 | 39% | Under |
| Rebounds | 8.8 | 6.9 | 9 | 8% | Under |
| Assists | 5.4 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 23% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37 | 33.4 | 37 | 22% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 31.6 | 28.8 | 31.5 | 27% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.2 | 26.5 | 28 | 37% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Paolo Banchero draws Memphis Grizzlies's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (strong defender, 78 Perimeter D), Jaylen Wells secondary, with Zach Edey as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 14.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-8 vs season). Model lines Banchero at 21.9 pts (range 18.6–25.3) vs a 23 line — an uphill case to clear it (39%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Orlando Magic (52%), projected 118–117, ~235 total at 99.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.1 | 22.7 | 22 | 58% | Over |
| Rebounds | 5.4 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 15% | Under |
| Assists | 4 | 4 | 4 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.5 | 31 | 31.5 | 45% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.5 | 27 | 27.5 | 45% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 26.1 | 26.7 | 26 | 57% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Franz Wagner draws Memphis Grizzlies's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (strong defender, 78 Perimeter D), Jaylen Wells secondary, with Zach Edey as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 20 pts a night over his last 5 (-2.1 vs season). Model lines Wagner at 22.7 pts (range 19.3–26.2) vs a 22 line — a lean to clear it (58%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Orlando Magic (52%), projected 118–117, ~235 total at 99.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 17.8 | 19 | 18 | 62% | Over |
| Rebounds | 3.3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 22% | Under |
| Assists | 2 | 1.8 | 2 | 42% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 23.1 | 23.3 | 23 | 54% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 21.1 | 21.6 | 21 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 19.8 | 20.8 | 20 | 59% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Jerami Grant draws Orlando Magic's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Jalen Suggs (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Jonathan Isaac secondary, with Wendell Carter Jr. as the low-man/help.
He's hot — 20.2 pts a night over his last 5 (+2.4 vs season). Model lines Grant at 19 pts (range 16.1–21.9) vs a 18 line — a good chance to clear it (62%).
Biggest edge: recent form — heating up — +2.4 over his season pace.
Model favors Orlando Magic (52%), projected 117–118, ~235 total at 99.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 15.6 | 14.9 | 15.5 | 42% | Under |
| Rebounds | 4.6 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 22% | Under |
| Assists | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2 | 67% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 22.1 | 21 | 22 | 37% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 20.2 | 18.5 | 20 | 29% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 17.5 | 17.4 | 17.5 | 49% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Cameron Boozer draws Orlando Magic's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Jalen Suggs (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Jonathan Isaac secondary, with Wendell Carter Jr. as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 11 pts a night over his last 1 (-4.6 vs season). Model lines Boozer at 14.9 pts (range 12.2–17.6) vs a 15.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (42%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Orlando Magic (52%), projected 117–118, ~235 total at 99.6 pace.