Matchup model · Thursday, October 8, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28 | 26.7 | 28 | 39% | Under |
| Rebounds | 9.5 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 8% | Under |
| Assists | 6.3 | 6 | 6.5 | 35% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 43.8 | 40 | 44 | 23% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 37.5 | 34 | 37.5 | 25% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 34.3 | 32.7 | 34.5 | 36% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Jayson Tatum draws Cleveland Cavaliers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Evan Mobley (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Dennis Schroder secondary, with Jarrett Allen as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 20 pts a night over his last 5 (-8 vs season). Model lines Tatum at 26.7 pts (range 22.6–30.8) vs a 28 line — an uphill case to clear it (39%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Cleveland Cavaliers (56%), projected 116–118, ~234 total at 97.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.4 | 19.2 | 20.5 | 34% | Under |
| Rebounds | 4.3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 16% | Under |
| Assists | 6.4 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 39% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.1 | 28.5 | 31 | 27% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 24.7 | 22.5 | 24.5 | 27% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 26.8 | 25.3 | 27 | 33% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Payton Pritchard draws Cleveland Cavaliers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Evan Mobley (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Dennis Schroder secondary, with Jarrett Allen as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 13.4 pts a night over his last 5 (-7 vs season). Model lines Pritchard at 19.2 pts (range 16.2–22.1) vs a 20.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (34%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Cleveland Cavaliers (56%), projected 116–118, ~234 total at 97.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 27.7 | 26.9 | 27.5 | 45% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 4.4 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 17% | Under |
| Assists | 5.7 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 44% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37.8 | 35.6 | 38 | 31% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 32.1 | 30.2 | 32 | 35% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 33.4 | 32.2 | 33.5 | 40% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Donovan Mitchell draws Boston Celtics's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Derrick White (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Jordan Walsh secondary, with Mitchell Robinson as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 22.4 pts a night over his last 5 (-5.3 vs season). Model lines Mitchell at 26.9 pts (range 22.8–31) vs a 27.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (45%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Cleveland Cavaliers (56%), projected 118–116, ~234 total at 97.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.5 | 18.9 | 20.5 | 31% | Under |
| Rebounds | 4.8 | 3.7 | 5 | 13% | Under |
| Assists | 7.9 | 8.1 | 8 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.2 | 30.7 | 33 | 29% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 25.3 | 22.5 | 25.5 | 19% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.4 | 27 | 28.5 | 36% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
James Harden draws Boston Celtics's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Derrick White (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Jordan Walsh secondary, with Mitchell Robinson as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 12.6 pts a night over his last 5 (-7.9 vs season). Model lines Harden at 18.9 pts (range 16–21.8) vs a 20.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (31%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Cleveland Cavaliers (56%), projected 118–116, ~234 total at 97.6 pace.