Matchup model · Thursday, October 8, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24 | 23.1 | 24 | 41% | Under |
| Rebounds | 6.2 | 4.9 | 6 | 18% | Under |
| Assists | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 42% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 34.8 | 32.2 | 35 | 27% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 30.2 | 28 | 30 | 31% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.6 | 27.3 | 28.5 | 40% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Trey Murphy III draws Miami Heat's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Davion Mitchell (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Giannis Antetokounmpo secondary, with Bam Adebayo as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-7.2 vs season). Model lines III at 23.1 pts (range 19.5–26.6) vs a 24 line — an uphill case to clear it (41%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Miami Heat (71%), projected 118–122, ~240 total at 100.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.7 | 21.1 | 21.5 | 46% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5.9 | 4.6 | 6 | 13% | Under |
| Assists | 3.2 | 3.7 | 3 | 73% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 30.8 | 29.5 | 31 | 36% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.6 | 25.8 | 27.5 | 33% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 24.9 | 24.9 | 25 | 49% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Zion Williamson draws Miami Heat's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Davion Mitchell (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Giannis Antetokounmpo secondary, with Bam Adebayo as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-5.5 vs season). Model lines Williamson at 21.1 pts (range 17.9–24.4) vs a 21.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (46%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Miami Heat (71%), projected 118–122, ~240 total at 100.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.6 | 29.8 | 28.5 | 60% | Over |
| Rebounds | 10.7 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 14% | Under |
| Assists | 5.9 | 6.2 | 6 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 45.2 | 44.5 | 45 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 39.3 | 38.3 | 39.5 | 42% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 34.5 | 36 | 34.5 | 60% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Giannis Antetokounmpo draws New Orleans Pelicans's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Herbert Jones (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Dejounte Murray secondary, with Derik Queen as the low-man/help.
Model lines Antetokounmpo at 29.8 pts (range 25.2–34.4) vs a 28.5 line — a lean to clear it (60%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Miami Heat (71%), projected 122–118, ~240 total at 100.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.7 | 21.7 | 23.5 | 32% | Under |
| Rebounds | 10.6 | 8.4 | 10.5 | 13% | Under |
| Assists | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 38 | 33.6 | 38 | 18% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 34.3 | 30.1 | 34.5 | 17% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 27.4 | 25.2 | 27.5 | 29% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Bam Adebayo draws New Orleans Pelicans's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Derik Queen (strong defender, 83 Rim protection), Yves Missi secondary, with Dejounte Murray as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 11.4 pts a night over his last 5 (-12.3 vs season). Model lines Adebayo at 21.7 pts (range 18.4–25.1) vs a 23.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (32%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Miami Heat (71%), projected 122–118, ~240 total at 100.8 pace.