Matchup model · Sunday, October 11, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 32 | 30.3 | 32 | 37% | Under |
| Rebounds | 4.3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 15% | Under |
| Assists | 7.8 | 7 | 8 | 28% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 44.1 | 40.6 | 44 | 27% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 36.3 | 33.6 | 36.5 | 28% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 39.8 | 37.3 | 40 | 33% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Tyrese Maxey draws Boston Celtics's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Derrick White (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Jordan Walsh secondary, with Mitchell Robinson as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 22.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-9.2 vs season). Model lines Maxey at 30.3 pts (range 25.6–34.9) vs a 32 line — an uphill case to clear it (37%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Boston Celtics (62%), projected 117–119, ~236 total at 97.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 29.2 | 26.5 | 29 | 29% | Under |
| Rebounds | 7.6 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 9% | Under |
| Assists | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 41.2 | 36.8 | 41 | 21% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 36.8 | 32.3 | 37 | 17% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 33.6 | 31 | 33.5 | 31% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Joel Embiid draws Boston Celtics's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Mitchell Robinson (strong defender, 85 Rim protection), Luka Garza secondary, with Derrick White as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.6 pts a night over his last 5 (-12.6 vs season). Model lines Embiid at 26.5 pts (range 22.4–30.6) vs a 29 line — an uphill case to clear it (29%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Boston Celtics (62%), projected 117–119, ~236 total at 97.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28 | 26.8 | 28 | 40% | Under |
| Rebounds | 9.5 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 8% | Under |
| Assists | 6.3 | 6 | 6.5 | 35% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 43.8 | 40.1 | 44 | 24% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 37.5 | 34.1 | 37.5 | 25% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 34.3 | 32.8 | 34.5 | 37% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Jayson Tatum draws Philadelphia 76ers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to VJ Edgecombe (solid defender, 76 Perimeter D), Jaylen Brown secondary, with Joel Embiid as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 20 pts a night over his last 5 (-8 vs season). Model lines Tatum at 26.8 pts (range 22.7–31) vs a 28 line — an uphill case to clear it (40%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Boston Celtics (62%), projected 119–117, ~236 total at 97.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.4 | 19.3 | 20.5 | 35% | Under |
| Rebounds | 4.3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 16% | Under |
| Assists | 6.4 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 39% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.1 | 28.6 | 31 | 28% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 24.7 | 22.5 | 24.5 | 28% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 26.8 | 25.3 | 27 | 34% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Payton Pritchard draws Philadelphia 76ers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to VJ Edgecombe (solid defender, 76 Perimeter D), Jaylen Brown secondary, with Joel Embiid as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 13.4 pts a night over his last 5 (-7 vs season). Model lines Pritchard at 19.3 pts (range 16.3–22.2) vs a 20.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (35%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Boston Celtics (62%), projected 119–117, ~236 total at 97.6 pace.