Matchup model · Sunday, October 11, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.8 | 21.6 | 23 | 35% | Under |
| Rebounds | 8.8 | 6.8 | 9 | 8% | Under |
| Assists | 5.4 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 22% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37 | 33 | 37 | 19% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 31.6 | 28.4 | 31.5 | 24% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.2 | 26.2 | 28 | 33% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Paolo Banchero draws Cleveland Cavaliers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Evan Mobley (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Dennis Schroder secondary, with Jarrett Allen as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 14.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-8 vs season). Model lines Banchero at 21.6 pts (range 18.3–24.9) vs a 23 line — an uphill case to clear it (35%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Cleveland Cavaliers (60%), projected 117–119, ~236 total at 99.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.1 | 22.4 | 22 | 54% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 5.4 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 14% | Under |
| Assists | 4 | 4 | 4 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.5 | 30.6 | 31.5 | 41% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.5 | 26.6 | 27.5 | 41% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 26.1 | 26.3 | 26 | 53% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Franz Wagner draws Cleveland Cavaliers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Evan Mobley (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Dennis Schroder secondary, with Jarrett Allen as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 20 pts a night over his last 5 (-2.1 vs season). Model lines Wagner at 22.4 pts (range 19–25.8) vs a 22 line — a lean to clear it (54%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Cleveland Cavaliers (60%), projected 117–119, ~236 total at 99.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 27.7 | 27.2 | 27.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 4.4 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 18% | Under |
| Assists | 5.7 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37.8 | 36.1 | 38 | 35% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 32.1 | 30.6 | 32 | 38% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 33.4 | 32.6 | 33.5 | 43% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Donovan Mitchell draws Orlando Magic's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Jalen Suggs (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Jonathan Isaac secondary, with Wendell Carter Jr. as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 22.4 pts a night over his last 5 (-5.3 vs season). Model lines Mitchell at 27.2 pts (range 23–31.4) vs a 27.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (48%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Cleveland Cavaliers (60%), projected 119–117, ~236 total at 99.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.2 | 18.9 | 20 | 36% | Under |
| Rebounds | 4.6 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 22% | Under |
| Assists | 7.6 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32.4 | 30.5 | 32.5 | 32% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 24.8 | 22.5 | 25 | 22% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 27.8 | 26.9 | 28 | 40% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
James Harden draws Orlando Magic's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Jalen Suggs (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Jonathan Isaac secondary, with Wendell Carter Jr. as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 12.6 pts a night over his last 5 (-7.6 vs season). Model lines Harden at 18.9 pts (range 16–21.8) vs a 20 line — an uphill case to clear it (36%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Cleveland Cavaliers (60%), projected 119–117, ~236 total at 99.4 pace.