Matchup model · Wednesday, October 14, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24.2 | 22.6 | 24 | 36% | Under |
| Rebounds | 5.4 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 12% | Under |
| Assists | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.7 | 30.9 | 33.5 | 27% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 29.6 | 26.7 | 29.5 | 24% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.3 | 26.8 | 28.5 | 35% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Brandon Miller draws Boston Celtics's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Derrick White (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Jordan Walsh secondary, with Mitchell Robinson as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.6 pts a night over his last 5 (-7.6 vs season). Model lines Miller at 22.6 pts (range 19.2–26.1) vs a 24 line — an uphill case to clear it (36%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Boston Celtics (68%), projected 113–117, ~230 total at 96.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.6 | 22.6 | 21.5 | 61% | Over |
| Rebounds | 3.9 | 2.9 | 4 | 19% | Under |
| Assists | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 30.3 | 30.7 | 30.5 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 50% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 26.4 | 27.8 | 26.5 | 61% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Coby White draws Boston Celtics's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Derrick White (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Jordan Walsh secondary, with Mitchell Robinson as the low-man/help.
He's hot — 24.2 pts a night over his last 5 (+2.6 vs season). Model lines White at 22.6 pts (range 19.1–26) vs a 21.5 line — a lean to clear it (61%).
Biggest edge: recent form — heating up — +2.6 over his season pace.
Model favors Boston Celtics (68%), projected 113–117, ~230 total at 96.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28 | 26.5 | 28 | 37% | Under |
| Rebounds | 9.5 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 7% | Under |
| Assists | 6.3 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 33% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 43.8 | 39.6 | 44 | 21% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 37.5 | 33.7 | 37.5 | 23% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 34.3 | 32.4 | 34.5 | 34% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Jayson Tatum draws Charlotte Hornets's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Sion James (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Royce O'Neale secondary, with Moussa Diabate as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 20 pts a night over his last 5 (-8 vs season). Model lines Tatum at 26.5 pts (range 22.5–30.6) vs a 28 line — an uphill case to clear it (37%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Boston Celtics (68%), projected 117–113, ~230 total at 96.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.4 | 19 | 20.5 | 33% | Under |
| Rebounds | 4.3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 15% | Under |
| Assists | 6.4 | 6 | 6.5 | 37% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.1 | 28.3 | 31 | 25% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 24.7 | 22.3 | 24.5 | 25% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 26.8 | 25 | 27 | 31% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Payton Pritchard draws Charlotte Hornets's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Sion James (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Royce O'Neale secondary, with Moussa Diabate as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 13.4 pts a night over his last 5 (-7 vs season). Model lines Pritchard at 19 pts (range 16.1–21.9) vs a 20.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (33%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Boston Celtics (68%), projected 117–113, ~230 total at 96.6 pace.