Matchup model · Friday, October 16, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28 | 26.8 | 28 | 39% | Under |
| Rebounds | 9.5 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 8% | Under |
| Assists | 6.3 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 35% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 43.8 | 40 | 44 | 24% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 37.5 | 34 | 37.5 | 25% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 34.3 | 32.7 | 34.5 | 37% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Jayson Tatum draws Philadelphia 76ers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (strong defender, 78 Perimeter D), VJ Edgecombe secondary, with Joel Embiid as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 20 pts a night over his last 5 (-8 vs season). Model lines Tatum at 26.8 pts (range 22.7–30.9) vs a 28 line — an uphill case to clear it (39%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Philadelphia 76ers (62%), projected 116–119, ~235 total at 97.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.4 | 19.2 | 20.5 | 35% | Under |
| Rebounds | 4.3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 15% | Under |
| Assists | 6.4 | 6.1 | 6.5 | 38% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.1 | 28.6 | 31 | 27% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 24.7 | 22.5 | 24.5 | 28% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 26.8 | 25.3 | 27 | 34% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Payton Pritchard draws Philadelphia 76ers's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (strong defender, 78 Perimeter D), VJ Edgecombe secondary, with Joel Embiid as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 13.4 pts a night over his last 5 (-7 vs season). Model lines Pritchard at 19.2 pts (range 16.3–22.1) vs a 20.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (35%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Philadelphia 76ers (62%), projected 116–119, ~235 total at 97.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 32 | 30.2 | 32 | 37% | Under |
| Rebounds | 4.3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 15% | Under |
| Assists | 7.8 | 7 | 8 | 28% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 44.1 | 40.5 | 44 | 27% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 36.3 | 33.5 | 36.5 | 28% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 39.8 | 37.2 | 40 | 32% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Tyrese Maxey draws Boston Celtics's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Derrick White (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Mike Conley secondary, with Mitchell Robinson as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 22.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-9.2 vs season). Model lines Maxey at 30.2 pts (range 25.6–34.9) vs a 32 line — an uphill case to clear it (37%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Philadelphia 76ers (62%), projected 119–116, ~235 total at 97.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 29.2 | 26.5 | 29 | 29% | Under |
| Rebounds | 7.6 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 9% | Under |
| Assists | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 41.2 | 36.7 | 41 | 20% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 36.8 | 32.2 | 37 | 16% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 33.6 | 30.9 | 33.5 | 30% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Joel Embiid draws Boston Celtics's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Mitchell Robinson (strong defender, 85 Rim protection), Luka Garza secondary, with Derrick White as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.6 pts a night over his last 5 (-12.6 vs season). Model lines Embiid at 26.5 pts (range 22.4–30.5) vs a 29 line — an uphill case to clear it (29%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Philadelphia 76ers (62%), projected 119–116, ~235 total at 97.4 pace.