Matchup model · Sunday, October 11, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.7 | 20.2 | 22.5 | 25% | Under |
| Rebounds | 5.2 | 4 | 5 | 19% | Under |
| Assists | 7.1 | 6 | 7 | 24% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35 | 30.1 | 35 | 12% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.9 | 24.1 | 28 | 14% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 29.8 | 26.2 | 30 | 18% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Ryan Rollins draws Charlotte Hornets's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Sion James (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Royce O'Neale secondary, with Moussa Diabate as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 10.6 pts a night over his last 5 (-12.1 vs season). Model lines Rollins at 20.2 pts (range 17.1–23.3) vs a 22.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (25%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Charlotte Hornets (65%), projected 115–119, ~234 total at 97.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.2 | 23.2 | 22 | 62% | Over |
| Rebounds | 5.1 | 3.9 | 5 | 18% | Under |
| Assists | 4.8 | 4.2 | 5 | 26% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32.1 | 31.3 | 32 | 44% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.3 | 27.1 | 27.5 | 46% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 27 | 27.4 | 27 | 54% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Tyler Herro draws Charlotte Hornets's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Sion James (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Royce O'Neale secondary, with Moussa Diabate as the low-man/help.
Model lines Herro at 23.2 pts (range 19.6–26.7) vs a 22 line — a good chance to clear it (62%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Charlotte Hornets (65%), projected 115–119, ~234 total at 97.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24.2 | 23.4 | 24 | 44% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5.4 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 13% | Under |
| Assists | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.7 | 31.8 | 33.5 | 35% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 29.6 | 27.5 | 29.5 | 31% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.3 | 27.7 | 28.5 | 42% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Brandon Miller draws Milwaukee Bucks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jaime Jaquez Jr. (solid defender, 72 Perimeter D), Ryan Rollins secondary, with Myles Turner as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.6 pts a night over his last 5 (-7.6 vs season). Model lines Miller at 23.4 pts (range 19.8–26.9) vs a 24 line — an uphill case to clear it (44%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Charlotte Hornets (65%), projected 119–115, ~234 total at 97.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.6 | 23.3 | 21.5 | 68% | Over |
| Rebounds | 3.9 | 3 | 4 | 20% | Under |
| Assists | 4.8 | 5.3 | 5 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 30.3 | 31.6 | 30.5 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 25.5 | 26.3 | 25.5 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 26.4 | 28.6 | 26.5 | 68% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Coby White draws Milwaukee Bucks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jaime Jaquez Jr. (solid defender, 72 Perimeter D), Ryan Rollins secondary, with Myles Turner as the low-man/help.
He's hot — 24.2 pts a night over his last 5 (+2.6 vs season). Model lines White at 23.3 pts (range 19.7–26.9) vs a 21.5 line — a good chance to clear it (68%).
Biggest edge: recent form — heating up — +2.6 over his season pace.
Model favors Charlotte Hornets (65%), projected 119–115, ~234 total at 97.5 pace.