Matchup model · Thursday, October 15, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24 | 23.3 | 24 | 43% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 6.2 | 4.9 | 6 | 17% | Under |
| Assists | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 42% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 34.8 | 32.5 | 35 | 29% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 30.2 | 28.2 | 30 | 34% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.6 | 27.6 | 28.5 | 42% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Trey Murphy III draws Dallas Mavericks's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Cooper Flagg (solid defender, 76 Perimeter D), Max Christie secondary, with Daniel Gafford as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-7.2 vs season). Model lines III at 23.3 pts (range 19.8–26.9) vs a 24 line — an uphill case to clear it (43%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (65%), projected 118–122, ~240 total at 100.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.7 | 21.4 | 21.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5.9 | 4.6 | 6 | 13% | Under |
| Assists | 3.2 | 3.7 | 3 | 73% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 30.8 | 29.7 | 31 | 38% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.6 | 26 | 27.5 | 35% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 24.9 | 25.1 | 25 | 51% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Zion Williamson draws Dallas Mavericks's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Cooper Flagg (solid defender, 76 Perimeter D), Max Christie secondary, with Daniel Gafford as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-5.5 vs season). Model lines Williamson at 21.4 pts (range 18.1–24.6) vs a 21.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (48%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (65%), projected 118–122, ~240 total at 100.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.4 | 22.9 | 23.5 | 44% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 4.6 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 23% | Under |
| Assists | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32.3 | 31 | 32.5 | 36% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 28 | 26.6 | 28 | 36% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 27.7 | 27.4 | 27.5 | 49% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Kyrie Irving draws New Orleans Pelicans's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Herbert Jones (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Dejounte Murray secondary, with Derik Queen as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-6.2 vs season). Model lines Irving at 22.9 pts (range 19.4–26.5) vs a 23.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (44%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (65%), projected 122–118, ~240 total at 100.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21 | 19.4 | 21 | 32% | Under |
| Rebounds | 6.7 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 15% | Under |
| Assists | 4.5 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 38% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32.2 | 28.9 | 32 | 22% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.7 | 24.7 | 27.5 | 23% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 25.5 | 23.6 | 25.5 | 31% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Cooper Flagg draws New Orleans Pelicans's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Herbert Jones (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Dejounte Murray secondary, with Derik Queen as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 11 pts a night over his last 5 (-10 vs season). Model lines Flagg at 19.4 pts (range 16.5–22.4) vs a 21 line — an uphill case to clear it (32%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Dallas Mavericks (65%), projected 122–118, ~240 total at 100.3 pace.