Matchup model · Saturday, October 17, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.5 | 22.9 | 23.5 | 44% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 11.5 | 9.1 | 11.5 | 11% | Under |
| Assists | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 38.7 | 35.3 | 38.5 | 26% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 35 | 32 | 35 | 26% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 27.2 | 26.2 | 27 | 43% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Anthony Davis draws New Orleans Pelicans's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Derik Queen (strong defender, 83 Rim protection), Yves Missi secondary, with Dejounte Murray as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-6.7 vs season). Model lines Davis at 22.9 pts (range 19.4–26.4) vs a 23.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (44%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New Orleans Pelicans (65%), projected 119–123, ~242 total at 100.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.2 | 21.6 | 22 | 46% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 3.1 | 2.4 | 3 | 32% | Under |
| Assists | 9.8 | 9.7 | 10 | 45% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35.1 | 33.8 | 35 | 40% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 25.3 | 24.1 | 25.5 | 35% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 32 | 31.3 | 32 | 45% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Trae Young draws New Orleans Pelicans's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Herbert Jones (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Dejounte Murray secondary, with Derik Queen as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 15.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-6.4 vs season). Model lines Young at 21.6 pts (range 18.3–24.9) vs a 22 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (46%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New Orleans Pelicans (65%), projected 119–123, ~242 total at 100.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24 | 23.6 | 24 | 46% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 6.2 | 4.9 | 6 | 18% | Under |
| Assists | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 34.8 | 32.8 | 35 | 31% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 30.2 | 28.5 | 30 | 36% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.6 | 27.9 | 28.5 | 45% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Trey Murphy III draws Washington Wizards's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Bilal Coulibaly (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Anthony Davis secondary, with Deandre Ayton as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-7.2 vs season). Model lines III at 23.6 pts (range 20–27.2) vs a 24 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (46%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New Orleans Pelicans (65%), projected 123–119, ~242 total at 100.2 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.7 | 21.6 | 21.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 5.9 | 4.7 | 6 | 13% | Under |
| Assists | 3.2 | 3.8 | 3 | 74% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 30.8 | 30 | 31 | 41% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.6 | 26.3 | 27.5 | 38% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 24.9 | 25.4 | 25 | 54% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Zion Williamson draws Washington Wizards's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Bilal Coulibaly (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Anthony Davis secondary, with Deandre Ayton as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-5.5 vs season). Model lines Williamson at 21.6 pts (range 18.3–24.9) vs a 21.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New Orleans Pelicans (65%), projected 123–119, ~242 total at 100.2 pace.