Matchup model · Saturday, October 10, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 27.2 | 27.3 | 27 | 52% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 6 | 4.7 | 6 | 15% | Under |
| Assists | 11.7 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 44.9 | 43.4 | 45 | 40% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 33.2 | 32 | 33 | 42% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 38.9 | 38.7 | 39 | 48% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Cade Cunningham draws Washington Wizards's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Bilal Coulibaly (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Anthony Davis secondary, with Deandre Ayton as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 21.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-6 vs season). Model lines Cunningham at 27.3 pts (range 23.1–31.4) vs a 27 line — a lean to clear it (52%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Washington Wizards (51%), projected 119–119, ~238 total at 99.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.6 | 22.6 | 23.5 | 41% | Under |
| Rebounds | 11.3 | 8.9 | 11.5 | 9% | Under |
| Assists | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 39% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37.3 | 33.7 | 37.5 | 21% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 34.9 | 31.5 | 35 | 23% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 26 | 24.8 | 26 | 38% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Duren draws Washington Wizards's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Deandre Ayton (strong defender, 84 Rim protection), Alex Sarr secondary, with Bilal Coulibaly as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 14.6 pts a night over his last 5 (-9 vs season). Model lines Duren at 22.6 pts (range 19.2–26.1) vs a 23.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (41%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Washington Wizards (51%), projected 119–119, ~238 total at 99.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.5 | 22.4 | 23.5 | 39% | Under |
| Rebounds | 11.5 | 8.9 | 11.5 | 10% | Under |
| Assists | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 41% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 38.7 | 34.6 | 38.5 | 21% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 35 | 31.4 | 35 | 22% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 27.2 | 25.7 | 27 | 37% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Anthony Davis draws Detroit Pistons's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jalen Duren (solid defender, 76 Rim protection), Ausar Thompson secondary, with Javonte Green as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-6.7 vs season). Model lines Davis at 22.4 pts (range 19–25.9) vs a 23.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (39%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Washington Wizards (51%), projected 119–119, ~238 total at 99.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.2 | 21 | 22 | 38% | Under |
| Rebounds | 3.1 | 2.4 | 3 | 31% | Under |
| Assists | 9.8 | 9.5 | 10 | 42% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35.1 | 32.9 | 35 | 32% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 25.3 | 23.4 | 25.5 | 27% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 32 | 30.5 | 32 | 38% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Trae Young draws Detroit Pistons's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Ausar Thompson (elite stopper, 90 Perimeter D), Javonte Green secondary, with Jalen Duren as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 15.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-6.4 vs season). Model lines Young at 21 pts (range 17.8–24.2) vs a 22 line — an uphill case to clear it (38%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Washington Wizards (51%), projected 119–119, ~238 total at 99.9 pace.