Matchup model · Thursday, October 8, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.3 | 19.3 | 22.5 | 16% | Under |
| Rebounds | 5.1 | 3.9 | 5 | 18% | Under |
| Assists | 7.5 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 21% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 34.9 | 29.5 | 35 | 9% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.4 | 23.2 | 27.5 | 11% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 29.8 | 25.6 | 30 | 14% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Ryan Rollins draws Oklahoma City Thunder's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Alex Caruso (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Cason Wallace secondary, with Isaiah Hartenstein as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 10.6 pts a night over his last 5 (-11.7 vs season). Model lines Rollins at 19.3 pts (range 16.3–22.3) vs a 22.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (16%).
Model favors Oklahoma City Thunder (79%), projected 114–121, ~235 total at 98.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.2 | 22.5 | 22 | 55% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 5.1 | 3.9 | 5 | 18% | Under |
| Assists | 4.8 | 4.2 | 5 | 26% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32.1 | 30.6 | 32 | 37% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.3 | 26.4 | 27.5 | 39% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 27 | 26.7 | 27 | 47% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Tyler Herro draws Oklahoma City Thunder's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Alex Caruso (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Cason Wallace secondary, with Isaiah Hartenstein as the low-man/help.
Model lines Herro at 22.5 pts (range 19.1–26) vs a 22 line — a lean to clear it (55%).
Model favors Oklahoma City Thunder (79%), projected 114–121, ~235 total at 98.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 36.2 | 36 | 36 | 50% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.4 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 18% | Under |
| Assists | 7.8 | 7.4 | 8 | 38% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 48.4 | 46.9 | 48.5 | 40% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 40.6 | 39.4 | 40.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 44 | 43.5 | 44 | 47% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws Milwaukee Bucks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jaime Jaquez Jr. (solid defender, 72 Perimeter D), Ryan Rollins secondary, with Myles Turner as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 28.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-8 vs season). Model lines Gilgeous-Alexander at 36 pts (range 30.5–41.5) vs a 36 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (50%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Oklahoma City Thunder (79%), projected 121–114, ~235 total at 98.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.2 | 22.2 | 22 | 52% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 5.1 | 4 | 5 | 19% | Under |
| Assists | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.4 | 32.6 | 33.5 | 42% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.3 | 26.2 | 27.5 | 37% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.3 | 28.7 | 28.5 | 51% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Williams draws Milwaukee Bucks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jaime Jaquez Jr. (solid defender, 72 Perimeter D), Ryan Rollins secondary, with Myles Turner as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-4.4 vs season). Model lines Williams at 22.2 pts (range 18.8–25.6) vs a 22 line — a lean to clear it (52%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Oklahoma City Thunder (79%), projected 121–114, ~235 total at 98.6 pace.