Matchup model · Thursday, October 8, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.6 | 28.1 | 28.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 4 | 3.1 | 4 | 23% | Under |
| Assists | 6.8 | 6.7 | 7 | 44% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 39.4 | 38 | 39.5 | 39% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 32.6 | 31.3 | 32.5 | 40% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 35.4 | 34.9 | 35.5 | 46% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Devin Booker draws Chicago Bulls's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Isaac Okoro (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Patrick Williams secondary, with Nic Claxton as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 21.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-6.8 vs season). Model lines Booker at 28.1 pts (range 23.8–32.4) vs a 28.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (47%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Chicago Bulls (55%), projected 118–119, ~237 total at 99.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.3 | 22.6 | 23.5 | 41% | Under |
| Rebounds | 3.8 | 3 | 4 | 19% | Under |
| Assists | 2 | 2.2 | 2 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 29.1 | 27.8 | 29 | 38% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.1 | 25.6 | 27 | 36% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 25.3 | 24.8 | 25.5 | 43% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Dillon Brooks draws Chicago Bulls's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Isaac Okoro (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Patrick Williams secondary, with Nic Claxton as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.6 pts a night over his last 5 (-6.7 vs season). Model lines Brooks at 22.6 pts (range 19.2–26.1) vs a 23.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (41%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Chicago Bulls (55%), projected 118–119, ~237 total at 99.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.8 | 21.1 | 22 | 40% | Under |
| Rebounds | 3.5 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 26% | Under |
| Assists | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 27.9 | 26.5 | 28 | 34% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 25.3 | 23.9 | 25.5 | 32% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 24.4 | 23.8 | 24.5 | 43% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Norman Powell draws Phoenix Suns's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jordan Goodwin (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Ryan Dunn secondary, with Khaman Maluach as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-5.6 vs season). Model lines Powell at 21.1 pts (range 17.9–24.4) vs a 22 line — an uphill case to clear it (40%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Chicago Bulls (55%), projected 119–118, ~237 total at 99.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.4 | 21.2 | 21.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 6.9 | 5.4 | 7 | 9% | Under |
| Assists | 2.9 | 2.4 | 3 | 31% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.2 | 29 | 31 | 31% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 28.3 | 26.5 | 28.5 | 31% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 24.3 | 23.6 | 24.5 | 41% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Matas Buzelis draws Phoenix Suns's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jordan Goodwin (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Ryan Dunn secondary, with Khaman Maluach as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17.6 pts a night over his last 5 (-3.8 vs season). Model lines Buzelis at 21.2 pts (range 17.9–24.4) vs a 21.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (47%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Chicago Bulls (55%), projected 119–118, ~237 total at 99.3 pace.