Matchup model · Saturday, October 10, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 17.8 | 19.4 | 18 | 66% | Over |
| Rebounds | 3.3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 23% | Under |
| Assists | 2 | 1.8 | 2 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 23.1 | 23.8 | 23 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 21.1 | 22 | 21 | 61% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 19.8 | 21.2 | 20 | 63% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Jerami Grant draws Chicago Bulls's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Isaac Okoro (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Patrick Williams secondary, with Nic Claxton as the low-man/help.
He's hot — 20.2 pts a night over his last 5 (+2.4 vs season). Model lines Grant at 19.4 pts (range 16.4–22.3) vs a 18 line — a good chance to clear it (66%).
Biggest edge: recent form — heating up — +2.4 over his season pace.
Model favors Chicago Bulls (68%), projected 117–121, ~238 total at 100.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 15.6 | 15.9 | 15.5 | 55% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.6 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 23% | Under |
| Assists | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 22.1 | 21.8 | 22 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 20.2 | 19.5 | 20 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 17.5 | 18.2 | 17.5 | 59% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Cameron Boozer draws Chicago Bulls's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Isaac Okoro (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Patrick Williams secondary, with Nic Claxton as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 13.5 pts a night over his last 2 (-2.1 vs season). Model lines Boozer at 15.9 pts (range 13.2–18.6) vs a 15.5 line — a lean to clear it (55%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Chicago Bulls (68%), projected 117–121, ~238 total at 100.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.8 | 21.6 | 22 | 45% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 3.5 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 27% | Under |
| Assists | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 27.9 | 27 | 28 | 40% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 25.3 | 24.3 | 25.5 | 38% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 24.4 | 24.3 | 24.5 | 48% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Norman Powell draws Memphis Grizzlies's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (strong defender, 78 Perimeter D), Jaylen Wells secondary, with Zach Edey as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-5.6 vs season). Model lines Powell at 21.6 pts (range 18.3–24.9) vs a 22 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (45%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Chicago Bulls (68%), projected 121–117, ~238 total at 100.4 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.4 | 21.6 | 21.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 6.9 | 5.5 | 7 | 10% | Under |
| Assists | 2.9 | 2.5 | 3 | 33% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.2 | 29.5 | 31 | 36% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 28.3 | 27.1 | 28.5 | 36% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 24.3 | 24.1 | 24.5 | 46% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Matas Buzelis draws Memphis Grizzlies's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (strong defender, 78 Perimeter D), Jaylen Wells secondary, with Zach Edey as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17.6 pts a night over his last 5 (-3.8 vs season). Model lines Buzelis at 21.6 pts (range 18.3–24.9) vs a 21.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Chicago Bulls (68%), projected 121–117, ~238 total at 100.4 pace.