Matchup model · Monday, October 12, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.8 | 21.3 | 22 | 42% | Under |
| Rebounds | 3.5 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 27% | Under |
| Assists | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 27.9 | 26.7 | 28 | 37% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 25.3 | 24 | 25.5 | 34% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 24.4 | 24 | 24.5 | 44% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Norman Powell draws Denver Nuggets's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Peyton Watson (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Aaron Gordon secondary, with Jonas Valančiūnas as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-5.6 vs season). Model lines Powell at 21.3 pts (range 18–24.5) vs a 22 line — an uphill case to clear it (42%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Denver Nuggets (70%), projected 118–123, ~241 total at 100.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.4 | 21.3 | 21.5 | 48% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 6.9 | 5.4 | 7 | 9% | Under |
| Assists | 2.9 | 2.4 | 3 | 32% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.2 | 29.2 | 31 | 33% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 28.3 | 26.8 | 28.5 | 33% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 24.3 | 23.8 | 24.5 | 43% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Matas Buzelis draws Denver Nuggets's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Peyton Watson (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Aaron Gordon secondary, with Jonas Valančiūnas as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17.6 pts a night over his last 5 (-3.8 vs season). Model lines Buzelis at 21.3 pts (range 18.1–24.6) vs a 21.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (48%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Denver Nuggets (70%), projected 118–123, ~241 total at 100.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.8 | 27 | 29 | 33% | Under |
| Rebounds | 13.2 | 10.4 | 13 | 13% | Under |
| Assists | 11.2 | 10.5 | 11 | 42% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 53.2 | 47.9 | 53 | 22% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 42 | 37.4 | 42 | 21% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 40 | 37.5 | 40 | 34% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Nikola Jokić draws Chicago Bulls's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Nic Claxton (strong defender, 82 Rim protection), Matas Buzelis secondary, with Isaac Okoro as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.4 pts a night over his last 5 (-12.4 vs season). Model lines Jokić at 27 pts (range 22.9–31.2) vs a 29 line — an uphill case to clear it (33%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Denver Nuggets (70%), projected 123–118, ~241 total at 100.3 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 27.2 | 26.2 | 27 | 43% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 4.6 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 23% | Under |
| Assists | 7.5 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 41% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 39.3 | 37 | 39.5 | 31% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 31.8 | 29.9 | 32 | 32% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 34.7 | 33.3 | 34.5 | 41% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Jamal Murray draws Chicago Bulls's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Isaac Okoro (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Patrick Williams secondary, with Nic Claxton as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 18.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-9 vs season). Model lines Murray at 26.2 pts (range 22.2–30.2) vs a 27 line — an uphill case to clear it (43%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Denver Nuggets (70%), projected 123–118, ~241 total at 100.3 pace.