Matchup model · Thursday, October 15, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 29.2 | 26.8 | 29 | 31% | Under |
| Rebounds | 6.3 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 8% | Under |
| Assists | 3.9 | 3.6 | 4 | 37% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 39.4 | 35.2 | 39.5 | 19% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 35.5 | 31.6 | 35.5 | 20% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 33.1 | 30.4 | 33 | 29% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Kawhi Leonard draws New York Knicks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to OG Anunoby (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Bruce Brown secondary, with Karl-Anthony Towns as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17.4 pts a night over his last 5 (-11.8 vs season). Model lines Leonard at 26.8 pts (range 22.7–30.9) vs a 29 line — an uphill case to clear it (31%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New York Knicks (61%), projected 115–117, ~232 total at 97.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19 | 53% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 5.2 | 4 | 5 | 20% | Under |
| Assists | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 27.6 | 26.5 | 27.5 | 39% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 24.4 | 23.2 | 24.5 | 35% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 22.4 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 50% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
RJ Barrett draws New York Knicks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to OG Anunoby (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Bruce Brown secondary, with Karl-Anthony Towns as the low-man/help.
Model lines Barrett at 19.2 pts (range 16.3–22.2) vs a 19 line — a lean to clear it (53%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New York Knicks (61%), projected 115–117, ~232 total at 97.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 26.8 | 24.9 | 27 | 31% | Under |
| Rebounds | 3.3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 21% | Under |
| Assists | 7.1 | 6.5 | 7 | 36% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37.2 | 33.9 | 37 | 25% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 30.1 | 27.4 | 30 | 26% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 33.9 | 31.3 | 34 | 30% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Brunson draws Toronto Raptors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jamal Shead (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Kawhi Leonard secondary, with Jakob Poeltl as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17 pts a night over his last 5 (-9.8 vs season). Model lines Brunson at 24.9 pts (range 21.1–28.7) vs a 27 line — an uphill case to clear it (31%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New York Knicks (61%), projected 117–115, ~232 total at 97.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.2 | 19.2 | 20 | 40% | Under |
| Rebounds | 12.6 | 9.6 | 12.5 | 9% | Under |
| Assists | 3 | 2.8 | 3 | 42% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35.8 | 31.5 | 36 | 16% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 32.8 | 28.8 | 33 | 16% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 23.2 | 21.9 | 23 | 38% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Karl-Anthony Towns draws Toronto Raptors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jakob Poeltl (strong defender, 82 Rim protection), Scottie Barnes secondary, with Jamal Shead as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 14.4 pts a night over his last 5 (-5.8 vs season). Model lines Towns at 19.2 pts (range 16.2–22.1) vs a 20 line — an uphill case to clear it (40%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New York Knicks (61%), projected 117–115, ~232 total at 97.9 pace.