Matchup model · Friday, October 16, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.7 | 20.6 | 22.5 | 29% | Under |
| Rebounds | 5.2 | 4 | 5 | 21% | Under |
| Assists | 7.1 | 6.1 | 7 | 27% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35 | 30.7 | 35 | 16% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.9 | 24.6 | 28 | 18% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 29.8 | 26.7 | 30 | 22% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Ryan Rollins draws Indiana Pacers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Andrew Nembhard (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Aaron Nesmith secondary, with Ivica Zubac as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 10.6 pts a night over his last 5 (-12.1 vs season). Model lines Rollins at 20.6 pts (range 17.4–23.7) vs a 22.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (29%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Indiana Pacers (63%), projected 119–121, ~240 total at 98.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.2 | 23.6 | 22 | 66% | Over |
| Rebounds | 5.1 | 4 | 5 | 19% | Under |
| Assists | 4.8 | 4.3 | 5 | 28% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32.1 | 31.9 | 32 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.3 | 27.6 | 27.5 | 51% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 27 | 27.9 | 27 | 58% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Tyler Herro draws Indiana Pacers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Andrew Nembhard (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Aaron Nesmith secondary, with Ivica Zubac as the low-man/help.
Model lines Herro at 23.6 pts (range 20–27.2) vs a 22 line — a good chance to clear it (66%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Indiana Pacers (63%), projected 119–121, ~240 total at 98.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 25.1 | 24.3 | 25 | 44% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 6.6 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 13% | Under |
| Assists | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35.8 | 33.7 | 36 | 31% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 31.7 | 29.5 | 31.5 | 32% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 29.2 | 28.6 | 29 | 46% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Pascal Siakam draws Milwaukee Bucks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jaime Jaquez Jr. (solid defender, 72 Perimeter D), Ryan Rollins secondary, with Myles Turner as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17 pts a night over his last 5 (-8.1 vs season). Model lines Siakam at 24.3 pts (range 20.6–28.1) vs a 25 line — an uphill case to clear it (44%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Indiana Pacers (63%), projected 121–119, ~240 total at 98.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.4 | 18.2 | 19.5 | 34% | Under |
| Rebounds | 3 | 2.3 | 3 | 29% | Under |
| Assists | 9 | 8.3 | 9 | 37% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.4 | 28.9 | 31.5 | 26% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 22.4 | 20.6 | 22.5 | 27% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.4 | 26.6 | 28.5 | 33% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Andrew Nembhard draws Milwaukee Bucks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jaime Jaquez Jr. (solid defender, 72 Perimeter D), Ryan Rollins secondary, with Myles Turner as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 11 pts a night over his last 5 (-8.4 vs season). Model lines Nembhard at 18.2 pts (range 15.5–21) vs a 19.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (34%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Indiana Pacers (63%), projected 121–119, ~240 total at 98.8 pace.