The short answer. The Balladex projection model's #1 fantasy quarterback for 2026 is Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) — projected for 21.2 PPR fantasy points per game, an ADP around round 3. Rounding out the top five: Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels.
Top quarterbacks · 2026 projected
Ranked by projected PPR points per game and value over replacement. Tap any player for his full projection.
| # | Player | Team | Projected line | Proj PPG | VOR | ADP Rd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Josh Allen |  BUF | 3,974 yds · 26 TD · 10 INT · 478 rush · 10 rush TD | 21.2 | +3.4 | 3 |
| 2 |  Lamar Jackson |  BAL | 3,933 yds · 31 TD · 7 INT · 674 rush · 3 rush TD | 20.9 | +3.1 | 4 |
| 3 |  Joe Burrow |  CIN | 4,577 yds · 38 TD · 10 INT · 139 rush · 1 rush TD | 20.2 | +2.4 | 5 |
| 4 |  Jalen Hurts |  PHI | 3,515 yds · 23 TD · 8 INT · 509 rush · 10 rush TD | 19.9 | +2.2 | 5 |
| 5 |  Jayden Daniels |  WSH | 3,530 yds · 24 TD · 8 INT · 828 rush · 5 rush TD | 19.5 | +1.7 | 5 |
| 6 |  Drake Maye |  NE | 4,272 yds · 27 TD · 9 INT · 487 rush · 3 rush TD | 19.4 | +1.6 | 6 |
| 7 |  Brock Purdy |  SF | 4,499 yds · 31 TD · 15 INT · 274 rush · 4 rush TD | 19.2 | +1.4 | 6 |
| 8 |  Bo Nix |  DEN | 4,003 yds · 28 TD · 11 INT · 398 rush · 4 rush TD | 18.5 | +0.7 | 7 |
| 9 |  Patrick Mahomes |  KC | 4,303 yds · 29 TD · 13 INT · 332 rush · 2 rush TD | 18.4 | +0.7 | 7 |
| 10 |  Trevor Lawrence |  JAX | 4,054 yds · 27 TD · 13 INT · 321 rush · 6 rush TD | 18.3 | +0.5 | 7 |
| 11 |  Caleb Williams |  CHI | 3,978 yds · 26 TD · 7 INT · 423 rush · 2 rush TD | 18.0 | +0.2 | 8 |
| 12 |  Justin Herbert |  LAC | 4,064 yds · 26 TD · 9 INT · 380 rush · 2 rush TD | 17.9 | +0.1 | 8 |
| 13 |  Jared Goff |  DET | 4,492 yds · 32 TD · 10 INT | 17.8 | +0.0 | 8 |
| 14 |  Dak Prescott |  DAL | 4,330 yds · 30 TD · 11 INT · 130 rush · 2 rush TD | 17.8 | 0.0 | 8 |
| 15 |  Baker Mayfield |  TB | 4,138 yds · 31 TD · 13 INT · 276 rush · 1 rush TD | 17.6 | -0.2 | 9 |
Method. A Balladex model estimate (illustrative), not a guarantee: each player projected forward from his last three seasons, bent along a position aging curve and availability, TDs regressed toward red-zone opportunity, defensive scheme and weekly matchups folded in, scored PPR and ranked by value over replacement. See the full 2026 draft board, the weekly start/sit & streamers board, matchups grid, and the model's sleepers & busts.