Matchup model · Friday, October 16, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 29.2 | 26.6 | 29 | 30% | Under |
| Rebounds | 6.3 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 8% | Under |
| Assists | 3.9 | 3.6 | 4 | 38% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 39.4 | 35 | 39.5 | 18% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 35.5 | 31.4 | 35.5 | 19% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 33.1 | 30.2 | 33 | 28% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Kawhi Leonard draws Detroit Pistons's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Ausar Thompson (elite stopper, 90 Perimeter D), Javonte Green secondary, with Jalen Duren as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17.4 pts a night over his last 5 (-11.8 vs season). Model lines Leonard at 26.6 pts (range 22.5–30.6) vs a 29 line — an uphill case to clear it (30%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Detroit Pistons (62%), projected 114–117, ~231 total at 98.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.2 | 19.1 | 19 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 5.2 | 4 | 5 | 20% | Under |
| Assists | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 27.6 | 26.4 | 27.5 | 38% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 24.4 | 23.1 | 24.5 | 34% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 22.4 | 22.4 | 22.5 | 48% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
RJ Barrett draws Detroit Pistons's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Ausar Thompson (elite stopper, 90 Perimeter D), Javonte Green secondary, with Jalen Duren as the low-man/help.
Model lines Barrett at 19.1 pts (range 16.2–22) vs a 19 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Detroit Pistons (62%), projected 114–117, ~231 total at 98.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 27.2 | 26.4 | 27 | 45% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 6 | 4.6 | 6 | 13% | Under |
| Assists | 11.7 | 11.2 | 11.5 | 45% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 44.9 | 42.2 | 45 | 32% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 33.2 | 31 | 33 | 34% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 38.9 | 37.6 | 39 | 41% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Cade Cunningham draws Toronto Raptors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jamal Shead (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Kawhi Leonard secondary, with Jakob Poeltl as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 21.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-6 vs season). Model lines Cunningham at 26.4 pts (range 22.4–30.4) vs a 27 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (45%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Detroit Pistons (62%), projected 117–114, ~231 total at 98.9 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.6 | 21.9 | 23.5 | 34% | Under |
| Rebounds | 11.3 | 8.7 | 11.5 | 7% | Under |
| Assists | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 37% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37.3 | 32.8 | 37.5 | 15% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 34.9 | 30.7 | 35 | 17% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 26 | 24 | 26 | 31% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Duren draws Toronto Raptors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jakob Poeltl (strong defender, 82 Rim protection), Scottie Barnes secondary, with Jamal Shead as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 14.6 pts a night over his last 5 (-9 vs season). Model lines Duren at 21.9 pts (range 18.6–25.3) vs a 23.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (34%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Detroit Pistons (62%), projected 117–114, ~231 total at 98.9 pace.