Matchup model · Tuesday, October 20, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28 | 26.1 | 28 | 34% | Under |
| Rebounds | 9.5 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 7% | Under |
| Assists | 6.3 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 34% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 43.8 | 39.3 | 44 | 19% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 37.5 | 33.4 | 37.5 | 20% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 34.3 | 32 | 34.5 | 32% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Jayson Tatum draws Detroit Pistons's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Ausar Thompson (elite stopper, 90 Perimeter D), Javonte Green secondary, with Jalen Duren as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 20 pts a night over his last 5 (-8 vs season). Model lines Tatum at 26.1 pts (range 22.1–30.1) vs a 28 line — an uphill case to clear it (34%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Detroit Pistons (61%), projected 113–116, ~229 total at 97.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.4 | 18.8 | 20.5 | 29% | Under |
| Rebounds | 4.3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 15% | Under |
| Assists | 6.4 | 6 | 6.5 | 37% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.1 | 28 | 31 | 23% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 24.7 | 22 | 24.5 | 23% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 26.8 | 24.8 | 27 | 29% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Payton Pritchard draws Detroit Pistons's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Ausar Thompson (elite stopper, 90 Perimeter D), Javonte Green secondary, with Jalen Duren as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 13.4 pts a night over his last 5 (-7 vs season). Model lines Pritchard at 18.8 pts (range 15.9–21.6) vs a 20.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (29%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Detroit Pistons (61%), projected 113–116, ~229 total at 97.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 27.2 | 26.2 | 27 | 43% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 6 | 4.6 | 6 | 12% | Under |
| Assists | 11.7 | 11 | 11.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 44.9 | 41.8 | 45 | 29% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 33.2 | 30.8 | 33 | 31% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 38.9 | 37.2 | 39 | 38% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Cade Cunningham draws Boston Celtics's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Derrick White (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Mike Conley secondary, with Mitchell Robinson as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 21.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-6 vs season). Model lines Cunningham at 26.2 pts (range 22.2–30.2) vs a 27 line — an uphill case to clear it (43%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Detroit Pistons (61%), projected 116–113, ~229 total at 97.6 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.6 | 21.7 | 23.5 | 31% | Under |
| Rebounds | 11.3 | 8.6 | 11.5 | 6% | Under |
| Assists | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 36% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37.3 | 32.4 | 37.5 | 13% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 34.9 | 30.3 | 35 | 15% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 26 | 23.8 | 26 | 28% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Duren draws Boston Celtics's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Mitchell Robinson (strong defender, 85 Rim protection), Luka Garza secondary, with Derrick White as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 14.6 pts a night over his last 5 (-9 vs season). Model lines Duren at 21.7 pts (range 18.4–25) vs a 23.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (31%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Detroit Pistons (61%), projected 116–113, ~229 total at 97.6 pace.