Matchup model · Thursday, October 22, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.5 | 26.5 | 28.5 | 33% | Under |
| Rebounds | 4.1 | 3.2 | 4 | 26% | Under |
| Assists | 7.1 | 7.2 | 7 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 39.7 | 37 | 39.5 | 32% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 32.6 | 29.8 | 32.5 | 27% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 35.6 | 33.8 | 35.5 | 37% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Keyonte George draws Memphis Grizzlies's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jaylen Wells (solid defender, 76 Perimeter D), Kris Murray secondary, with Zach Edey as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 14.6 pts a night over his last 5 (-13.9 vs season). Model lines George at 26.5 pts (range 22.5–30.6) vs a 28.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (33%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Memphis Grizzlies (59%), projected 119–120, ~239 total at 100.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.3 | 29.3 | 28.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 6.8 | 5.4 | 7 | 9% | Under |
| Assists | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 58% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37.4 | 37.5 | 37.5 | 50% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 35.1 | 34.7 | 35 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 30.6 | 32.1 | 30.5 | 62% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Lauri Markkanen draws Memphis Grizzlies's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jaylen Wells (solid defender, 76 Perimeter D), Kris Murray secondary, with Zach Edey as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 25.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-2.5 vs season). Model lines Markkanen at 29.3 pts (range 24.9–33.8) vs a 28.5 line — a lean to clear it (57%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Memphis Grizzlies (59%), projected 119–120, ~239 total at 100.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 17.8 | 19.6 | 18 | 68% | Over |
| Rebounds | 3.3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 23% | Under |
| Assists | 2 | 1.8 | 2 | 44% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 23.1 | 24 | 23 | 62% | Over |
| Pts + Reb | 21.1 | 22.2 | 21 | 64% | Over |
| Pts + Ast | 19.8 | 21.4 | 20 | 66% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Jerami Grant draws Utah Jazz's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jaren Jackson Jr. (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Josh Okogie secondary, with Jaxson Hayes as the low-man/help.
He's hot — 20.2 pts a night over his last 5 (+2.4 vs season). Model lines Grant at 19.6 pts (range 16.6–22.6) vs a 18 line — a good chance to clear it (68%).
Biggest edge: recent form — heating up — +2.4 over his season pace.
Model favors Memphis Grizzlies (59%), projected 120–119, ~239 total at 100.5 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 15.6 | 16.2 | 15.5 | 59% | Over |
| Rebounds | 4.6 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 24% | Under |
| Assists | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2 | 60% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 20.2 | 19.8 | 20 | 48% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 17.5 | 18.5 | 17.5 | 63% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Cameron Boozer draws Utah Jazz's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jaren Jackson Jr. (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Josh Okogie secondary, with Jaxson Hayes as the low-man/help.
Model lines Boozer at 16.2 pts (range 13.5–18.9) vs a 15.5 line — a lean to clear it (59%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Memphis Grizzlies (59%), projected 120–119, ~239 total at 100.5 pace.