The short answer. The Balladex projection model's biggest 2026 fantasy football bust is Drew Lock (Seattle Seahawks, QB) — projected to fall from 17.1 to 3.1 fantasy points per game (a -14.0 PPG drop) as his production is bent along the position aging curve and an availability estimate. Other players the model fades in 2026: Kenneth Walker III, Derrick Henry, Jalen Coker, Chuba Hubbard.
The model's 2026 fades projected
Ranked by projected drop in fantasy points per game vs last season. Tap any player for his full projection.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | Last | Proj | Δ PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Drew Lock |  SEA | QB52 | 17.1 | 3.1 | -14.0 |
| 2 |  Kenneth Walker III |  KC | RB4 | 25.2 | 17.8 | -7.4 |
| 3 |  Derrick Henry |  BAL | RB21 | 18.5 | 11.6 | -6.9 |
| 4 |  Jalen Coker |  CAR | WR51 | 17.0 | 10.5 | -6.5 |
| 5 |  Chuba Hubbard | CAR | RB19 | 17.2 | 11.7 | -5.5 |
| 6 |  Christian Watson |  GB | WR17 | 19.8 | 14.4 | -5.4 |
| 7 |  Jahmyr Gibbs |  DET | RB1 | 28.7 | 23.9 | -4.9 |
| 8 |  Davante Adams |  LAR | WR30 | 17.0 | 12.3 | -4.7 |
Method. A Balladex model estimate, not a guarantee: each player projected forward from his last three seasons — recency-weighted per-game production — for receivers, projected target volume with catch-rate, yards and TD efficiency regressed toward league norms — bent along a position aging curve and an availability estimate, scored PPR, ranked by value over replacement. See the full 2026 draft board, the model's sleepers & breakouts, and head-to-head player compare. How this is calculated →