The short answer. The Balladex projection model's top 2026 fantasy football sleeper is Brian Thomas Jr. (Jacksonville Jaguars, WR) — projected for 12.4 fantasy points per game, a +8.2 PPG rise, at an ADP around round 7. Other undervalued names the model likes: Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland, Omarion Hampton, Malik Nabers.
The model's 2026 sleepers & breakouts projected
Undervalued vs draft cost, or young players projected to rise. Tap any player for his full projection.
| # | Player | Team | Pos | Proj PPG | Δ PPG | ADP Rd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Brian Thomas Jr. |  JAX | WR28 | 12.4 | +8.2 | 7 |
| 2 |  Rome Odunze |  CHI | WR31 | 12.2 | +3.7 | 7 |
| 3 |  Colston Loveland | CHI | TE10 | 10.5 | +3.4 | 6 |
| 4 |  Omarion Hampton |  LAC | RB15 | 13.5 | +3.2 | 3 |
| 5 |  Malik Nabers |  NYG | WR5 | 19.6 | +2.6 | 1 |
| 6 |  Carnell Tate |  TEN | WR21 | 13.7 | +2.1 | 5 |
| 7 |  Drake Maye |  NE | QB5 | 20.7 | +1.8 | 4 |
| 8 |  Harold Fannin Jr. |  CLE | TE9 | 10.7 | +1.7 | 6 |
| 9 |  Trevor Lawrence | JAX | QB7 | 20.3 | +1.3 | 5 |
| 10 |  A.J. Brown | NE | WR18 | 14.3 | +8.6 | 4 |
| 11 |  Wan'Dale Robinson | TEN | WR19 | 13.9 | +4.5 | 4 |
| 12 |  Matthew Golden |  GB | WR22 | 13.3 | -3.1 | 5 |
| 13 |  Tucker Kraft | GB | TE6 | 11.8 | +2.5 | 4 |
| 14 |  Travis Etienne Jr. |  NO | RB20 | 11.7 | +2.0 | 5 |
Method. A Balladex model estimate, not a guarantee: each player projected forward from his last three seasons — recency-weighted per-game production — for receivers, projected target volume with catch-rate, yards and TD efficiency regressed toward league norms — bent along a position aging curve and an availability estimate, scored PPR, ranked by value over replacement. See the full 2026 draft board, the model's busts to avoid, and head-to-head player compare. How this is calculated →