Data sources & editorial policy.

Data vs model: what is fact and what is estimate

Data is what happened: biographies, season-by-season statistics, career totals, rosters, depth charts, standings, schedules, injury reports and awards. It comes from the sources below and is shown as recorded.

Model output is Balladex's own estimate, computed by deterministic code from that data, the same way every time. Pages label it as a Balladex model estimate. The models:

• Balladex Impact index — A 0–99 composite of an NBA player's skill ratings plus a capped bonus for major honors.
• MVP odds — NBA and NFL MVP ladders: a production-based score per contender, turned into probabilities across the field.
• Title and Super Bowl odds — NBA title odds from a team rating (last season, roster talent, this season) run through the bracket; Super Bowl odds from point differential.
• Power rankings and team grades — Teams ordered by point differential, with an A–F grade from win percentage.
• Fantasy projections — Forward-looking fantasy points, value over replacement, tiers and a model draft round for NFL and NBA.
• Compare verdict — Head-to-head verdicts: who leads in more shared stat categories, and which pairs get a page.
• NFL production index — A cross-position NFL rating: each player's production as a percentile of his position, curved to 20–99.

Data sources

• nflverse (CC-BY-4.0) — NFL weekly player stats and current-season lines, depth charts, weekly rosters, injury history, snap counts, schedules, and the play-by-play behind the fantasy model's opportunity inputs (red-zone usage, air yards, pass rate over expectation, defense faced).
• ESPN public feeds — Live NBA and NFL standings, schedules, injury reports, recent form, and new NFL roster additions. ESPN athlete IDs are the identity key for NBA players.
• hoopR (sportsdataverse) — NBA season tables, playoff lines and career lines. hoopR mirrors ESPN's NBA data and joins to players by ESPN ID.
• Basketball-Reference — NBA player contracts and salaries. Some retired players' career figures were also compiled from it.
• Wikipedia and Wikidata (CC BY-SA 4.0 / CC0) — NFL award winners: AP MVP, Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year, Super Bowl MVP and the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Read from the Wikipedia list articles, matched to players through Wikidata IDs, and stored with the exact article revisions used.

The fantasy model's skill-position inputs are built from nflverse data. NBA skill ratings, which feed the Impact index and parts of the NBA MVP model, are Balladex's editorial characterizations, not tracked data.

Update schedule

Refreshes run as scheduled jobs. Each job validates the data before committing it, and a commit redeploys the site.

The publishing floor: no odds on a handful of games

Two preseason games once produced a 76% title favorite. The rule since then: model odds need enough of the current regular season behind them — 10 games per team in the NBA and 4 weeks in the NFL. NBA title and MVP odds are withheld automatically until the floor is met; before that, NBA pages show last season's final standing, labeled as such. NFL odds are computed from the games played so far, so treat them as provisional in the first weeks. The NFL MVP race also requires a minimum workload from each contender: 60% of the weeks played so far, and at least two games.

How AI is used

AI writes some of the prose on Balladex. It does not compute any of the numbers: every stat comes from the sources above and every model number from the code described on these pages.

• The Beat (news desk) is AI-written. Each story is built from a dossier of sourced facts and drafted by an AI model. It must pass a mechanical audit, which rejects any number not in the dossier, any uncited factual paragraph and any invented insider, and then an AI editor. A story that fails both after one revision is killed. Bylines name an AI reporter and carry the label "AI reporter" in the byline itself. Every story lists its sources and ends with a "How this was made" disclosure.
• Reference pages ("Stats explained") are drafted by AI and edited the same way, from sourced figures, with the same disclosure.
• The War Room is AI-drafted. Its verdicts are argued by a labeled panel of AI analysts, grounded in the projection model and real stat lines. Going forward, War Room pieces are reviewed and signed by Beau Thoutt, and the AI drafting is disclosed.
• Player-page analyst panels are labeled AI opinion, grounded in the stats on the page. They are not real people.
• Availability watch. An AI reads the news wire once a day and proposes availability changes, such as suspensions. A proposal changes no projection until a person reviews and approves it.

Editorial policy

Data pages are published by Balladex, the organization. Stat tables, standings, rankings and model boards are produced by code from the sources above. Nobody hand-picks a result.

Opinion is signed by a person. Opinion and analysis are signed by Beau Thoutt, who is accountable for them. AI-written pieces are labeled as AI in the byline. Balladex never presents an AI persona as a human journalist.

Facts are real; models are labeled. Where the data doesn't cover something, the page says so. It doesn't fill the gap. Balladex is not affiliated with any league, team or sportsbook, and nothing here is betting advice.

Corrections policy

Accuracy is the point of the site. To report an error, email hello@balladex.com with the page and what is wrong. Confirmed factual errors are fixed in the underlying data rather than patched on a single page, so the correction reaches every page that uses that fact. When a model's formula changes, its methodology page is updated in the same change and its review date moves.

Model methodology pages

Frequently asked questions