Matchup model · Thursday, October 22, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 28.6 | 27.7 | 28.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 4 | 3.1 | 4 | 22% | Under |
| Assists | 6.8 | 6.7 | 7 | 42% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 39.4 | 37.4 | 39.5 | 35% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 32.6 | 30.8 | 32.5 | 35% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 35.4 | 34.3 | 35.5 | 42% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Devin Booker draws Portland Trail Blazers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jrue Holiday (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Toumani Camara secondary, with Donovan Clingan as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 21.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-6.8 vs season). Model lines Booker at 27.7 pts (range 23.4–31.9) vs a 28.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (43%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (66%), projected 117–120, ~237 total at 98.7 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.3 | 22.3 | 23.5 | 37% | Under |
| Rebounds | 3.8 | 2.9 | 4 | 19% | Under |
| Assists | 2 | 2.2 | 2 | 56% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 29.1 | 27.4 | 29 | 33% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.1 | 25.2 | 27 | 32% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 25.3 | 24.4 | 25.5 | 39% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Dillon Brooks draws Portland Trail Blazers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jrue Holiday (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Toumani Camara secondary, with Donovan Clingan as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.6 pts a night over his last 5 (-6.7 vs season). Model lines Brooks at 22.3 pts (range 18.9–25.7) vs a 23.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (37%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (66%), projected 117–120, ~237 total at 98.7 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 29.9 | 26.9 | 30 | 25% | Under |
| Rebounds | 7.3 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 7% | Under |
| Assists | 8.4 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 21% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 45.6 | 39.6 | 45.5 | 15% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 37.2 | 32.5 | 37 | 18% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 38.3 | 34 | 38.5 | 20% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Deni Avdija draws Phoenix Suns's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jordan Goodwin (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Ryan Dunn secondary, with Khaman Maluach as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 14.4 pts a night over his last 5 (-15.5 vs season). Model lines Avdija at 26.9 pts (range 22.8–31) vs a 30 line — an uphill case to clear it (25%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (66%), projected 120–117, ~237 total at 98.7 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.7 | 22.8 | 22.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 4.4 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 18% | Under |
| Assists | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 57% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 33.8 | 33 | 34 | 41% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.1 | 26.2 | 27 | 42% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 29.4 | 29.6 | 29.5 | 51% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Damian Lillard draws Phoenix Suns's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jordan Goodwin (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Ryan Dunn secondary, with Khaman Maluach as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 20.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-2.5 vs season). Model lines Lillard at 22.8 pts (range 19.3–26.3) vs a 22.5 line — a lean to clear it (53%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Portland Trail Blazers (66%), projected 120–117, ~237 total at 98.7 pace.