Matchup model · Wednesday, October 21, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 26.9 | 25.6 | 27 | 37% | Under |
| Rebounds | 11.6 | 9.1 | 11.5 | 11% | Under |
| Assists | 9.5 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 25% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 48 | 42.9 | 48 | 20% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 38.5 | 34.7 | 38.5 | 23% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 36.4 | 33.8 | 36.5 | 31% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Jalen Johnson draws Orlando Magic's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jalen Suggs (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Desmond Bane secondary, with Wendell Carter Jr. as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 18 pts a night over his last 5 (-8.9 vs season). Model lines Johnson at 25.6 pts (range 21.7–29.5) vs a 27 line — an uphill case to clear it (37%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Orlando Magic (61%), projected 117–120, ~237 total at 100.1 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24.9 | 23.3 | 25 | 33% | Under |
| Rebounds | 3.8 | 3 | 4 | 20% | Under |
| Assists | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32.9 | 30.4 | 33 | 27% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 28.7 | 26.3 | 28.5 | 29% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 29.1 | 27.4 | 29 | 36% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Nickeil Alexander-Walker draws Orlando Magic's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jalen Suggs (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Desmond Bane secondary, with Wendell Carter Jr. as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 15.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-9.7 vs season). Model lines Alexander-Walker at 23.3 pts (range 19.7–26.9) vs a 25 line — an uphill case to clear it (33%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Orlando Magic (61%), projected 117–120, ~237 total at 100.1 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.8 | 21.3 | 23 | 32% | Under |
| Rebounds | 8.8 | 6.9 | 9 | 8% | Under |
| Assists | 5.4 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 23% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 37 | 32.8 | 37 | 18% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 31.6 | 28.2 | 31.5 | 22% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.2 | 25.9 | 28 | 31% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Paolo Banchero draws Atlanta Hawks's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Dyson Daniels (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Luguentz Dort secondary, with Jock Landale as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 14.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-8 vs season). Model lines Banchero at 21.3 pts (range 18.1–24.6) vs a 23 line — an uphill case to clear it (32%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Orlando Magic (61%), projected 120–117, ~237 total at 100.1 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.1 | 22.1 | 22 | 51% | Lean over |
| Rebounds | 5.4 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 14% | Under |
| Assists | 4 | 4 | 4 | 49% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.5 | 30.3 | 31.5 | 39% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.5 | 26.3 | 27.5 | 38% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26 | 51% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Franz Wagner draws Atlanta Hawks's switch-heavy scheme — switches 1–4 (or 1–5) to erase actions and keep bodies in front.
Primary assignment projects to Dyson Daniels (elite stopper, 94 Perimeter D), Luguentz Dort secondary, with Jock Landale as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 20 pts a night over his last 5 (-2.1 vs season). Model lines Wagner at 22.1 pts (range 18.7–25.5) vs a 22 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (51%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Orlando Magic (61%), projected 120–117, ~237 total at 100.1 pace.