Matchup model · Wednesday, October 21, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.7 | 20.8 | 22.5 | 31% | Under |
| Rebounds | 5.2 | 4.1 | 5 | 22% | Under |
| Assists | 7.1 | 6.2 | 7 | 29% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35 | 31 | 35 | 18% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.9 | 24.9 | 28 | 20% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 29.8 | 27 | 30 | 24% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Ryan Rollins draws Washington Wizards's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Bilal Coulibaly (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Anthony Davis secondary, with Deandre Ayton as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 10.6 pts a night over his last 5 (-12.1 vs season). Model lines Rollins at 20.8 pts (range 17.6–24) vs a 22.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (31%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Washington Wizards (58%), projected 120–121, ~241 total at 99.1 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.2 | 23.9 | 22 | 68% | Over |
| Rebounds | 5.1 | 4 | 5 | 20% | Under |
| Assists | 4.8 | 4.4 | 5 | 30% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 32.1 | 32.2 | 32 | 52% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb | 27.3 | 27.9 | 27.5 | 53% | Lean over |
| Pts + Ast | 27 | 28.2 | 27 | 61% | Over |
Why — matchup factors
Tyler Herro draws Washington Wizards's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Bilal Coulibaly (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Anthony Davis secondary, with Deandre Ayton as the low-man/help.
Model lines Herro at 23.9 pts (range 20.2–27.5) vs a 22 line — a good chance to clear it (68%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Washington Wizards (58%), projected 120–121, ~241 total at 99.1 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 23.5 | 22.8 | 23.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 11.5 | 9 | 11.5 | 10% | Under |
| Assists | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 42% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 38.7 | 35 | 38.5 | 24% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 35 | 31.8 | 35 | 25% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 27.2 | 26.1 | 27 | 41% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Anthony Davis draws Milwaukee Bucks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Myles Turner (elite stopper, 88 Rim protection), Kel'el Ware secondary, with Ryan Rollins as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-6.7 vs season). Model lines Davis at 22.8 pts (range 19.3–26.3) vs a 23.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (43%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Washington Wizards (58%), projected 121–120, ~241 total at 99.1 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 22.2 | 21.8 | 22 | 47% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 3.1 | 2.4 | 3 | 31% | Under |
| Assists | 9.8 | 9.6 | 10 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35.1 | 33.8 | 35 | 40% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 25.3 | 24.2 | 25.5 | 36% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 32 | 31.4 | 32 | 45% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Trae Young draws Milwaukee Bucks's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Jaime Jaquez Jr. (solid defender, 72 Perimeter D), Ryan Rollins secondary, with Myles Turner as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 15.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-6.4 vs season). Model lines Young at 21.8 pts (range 18.4–25.1) vs a 22 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (47%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Washington Wizards (58%), projected 121–120, ~241 total at 99.1 pace.