Matchup model · Thursday, October 22, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 25.1 | 24.2 | 25 | 42% | Under |
| Rebounds | 6.6 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 14% | Under |
| Assists | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4 | 59% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 35.8 | 33.6 | 36 | 31% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 31.7 | 29.4 | 31.5 | 31% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 29.2 | 28.5 | 29 | 45% | Lean under |
Why — matchup factors
Pascal Siakam draws New Orleans Pelicans's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Herbert Jones (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Dejounte Murray secondary, with Derik Queen as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17 pts a night over his last 5 (-8.1 vs season). Model lines Siakam at 24.2 pts (range 20.5–27.9) vs a 25 line — an uphill case to clear it (42%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New Orleans Pelicans (61%), projected 119–121, ~240 total at 99.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.4 | 18.1 | 19.5 | 33% | Under |
| Rebounds | 3 | 2.4 | 3 | 29% | Under |
| Assists | 9 | 8.4 | 9 | 38% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.4 | 28.9 | 31.5 | 26% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 22.4 | 20.5 | 22.5 | 26% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.4 | 26.5 | 28.5 | 32% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Andrew Nembhard draws New Orleans Pelicans's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Herbert Jones (strong defender, 84 Perimeter D), Dejounte Murray secondary, with Derik Queen as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 11 pts a night over his last 5 (-8.4 vs season). Model lines Nembhard at 18.1 pts (range 15.4–20.9) vs a 19.5 line — an uphill case to clear it (33%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New Orleans Pelicans (61%), projected 119–121, ~240 total at 99.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 24 | 23.3 | 24 | 43% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 6.2 | 4.9 | 6 | 17% | Under |
| Assists | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 42% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 34.8 | 32.5 | 35 | 29% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 30.2 | 28.2 | 30 | 34% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 28.6 | 27.6 | 28.5 | 42% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Trey Murphy III draws Indiana Pacers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Andrew Nembhard (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Jarace Walker secondary, with Ivica Zubac as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.8 pts a night over his last 5 (-7.2 vs season). Model lines III at 23.3 pts (range 19.8–26.9) vs a 24 line — an uphill case to clear it (43%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New Orleans Pelicans (61%), projected 121–119, ~240 total at 99.8 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.7 | 21.4 | 21.5 | 49% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 5.9 | 4.6 | 6 | 13% | Under |
| Assists | 3.2 | 3.7 | 3 | 73% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 30.8 | 29.7 | 31 | 38% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 27.6 | 26 | 27.5 | 35% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 24.9 | 25.1 | 25 | 51% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
Zion Williamson draws Indiana Pacers's drop coverage scheme — sits the big back to wall off the rim and lives with contested mid-range looks.
Primary assignment projects to Andrew Nembhard (strong defender, 80 Perimeter D), Jarace Walker secondary, with Ivica Zubac as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-5.5 vs season). Model lines Williamson at 21.4 pts (range 18.1–24.6) vs a 21.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (49%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors New Orleans Pelicans (61%), projected 121–119, ~240 total at 99.8 pace.