The Index · Live

Dalton Kincaid Buffalo Bills · #86

Tight End · 6' 3", 246 lbs · Las Vegas, NV · Age 27

Dalton Kincaid is a Tight End for the Buffalo Bills, drafted 25th overall, 2023. In 2026 he caught 15 passes for 270 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Buffalo Bills roster More Tight Ends

Tight EndDrafted 25th overall4-yr veteran

⚖ Quick compare

Analysis by Beau Thoutt · Balladex

◆ Rated

Buffalo Bills · #86 · Tight End

Dalton Kincaid

Season avg15 rec · 270 yds · 1 td

Career avg171 rec · 1,962 yds · 10 td

Live win probabilitySeason

No scheduled game — showing season pace. Illustrative.

Tonight's projectionmodel

15rec

270yds

1td

LADDER#90 in the Balladex MVP raceIMPACTBalladex Impact 50 — Rotation piece tierINDEXDalton Kincaid · Buffalo BillsLADDER#90 in the Balladex MVP raceIMPACTBalladex Impact 50 — Rotation piece tierINDEXDalton Kincaid · Buffalo Bills

Scouting report

Dalton Kincaid — the report card

Read his whole game at a glance, then dive into any skill. Grades are percentiles vs every active player at his position.

Tight End · Rotation piece · Impact 50

Dalton Kincaid is a Tight End for the Buffalo Bills, drafted 25th overall, 2023. In 2026 he caught 15 passes for 270 yards and 1 touchdowns.

Receiving

A+

Big-play

B+

Scoring

A+

Receiving yards

Elite · offense

tap for the data ↓

Volume

Elite · offense

tap for the data ↓

B+

Scoring

Excellent · offense

tap for the data ↓

A+

Big-play

Elite · offense

tap for the data ↓

A-

Target share

Excellent · offense

tap for the data ↓

Act II

Where Dalton Kincaid stands

Live ladders from the Balladex models, and what he's chasing. Rankings recompute nightly from real production, accolades, and search demand.

The laddersmodel · recomputes nightly

Jared Goff Detroit Lions▬

29%

Bryce Young Carolina Panthers▬

23%

Brock Purdy San Francisco 49ers▬

22%

Tyler Shough New Orleans Saints▬

11%

Kirk Cousins Las Vegas Raiders▬

✦ Balladex Consensus: #29 of 1982 — a blend of the Impact index, current production, career résumé and live search demand. Recomputes as the data does.

Futures & chases

—MVP odds

50Impact index

163Star score

Career scoring average0.0 ppg

Seasons in the index0

Accolades on file0

Stat explorer

Dalton Kincaid — every number, three levels deep

Headline → metric → the raw history behind it. Real career data; tracking-only metrics labeled.

A+

Receiving

270 YDS

drill in ↓

A+

Volume

15 REC

drill in ↓

A+

Big-play

18.0 Y/R

drill in ↓

A+

Scoring

1 TD

drill in ↓

The engine

How the model sees Dalton Kincaid

Projection = recency-weighted per-season production, nudged along a position aging curve, banded by his year-to-year volatility. No black box — every number shows its work.

Projected 2027 modeled

rec

16–39

400

rec yds

280–520

1–4

targets

16–61

games

5–12

Bands widen as confidence drops. Derived live from the real 4-season history below.

What moves the rec line vs last season

Last season 15 → projected 28 rec

Baseline (recency-weighted)

+12.8

Age curve

+0.0

Net vs last season+12.8 rec

Everything it reads

📊

4 seasons of real box production

every game line, verified

real

⚖

Recency × games weight

recent, healthy years anchor the baseline

auto

📈

Year-over-year trend

his own trajectory, season to season

+dev

🕰

Position aging curve

age 27 — applied to the projection

curve

🏈

Role & usage context

target / carry share and snaps fold in

+ctx

🏥

Availability signal

games last 3: 13 / 12 / 4

health

The real history it trains onsource: Pro-Football-Reference / ESPN · verified

Dalton Kincaid career stats, season by season

Career stats by season
Season	G	Rec	Yds	TD	Tgt	Y/R
2023	16	73	673	2	91	9.2
2024	13	44	448	2	75	10.2
2025	12	39	571	5	49	14.6
2026 in progress · 4 games	4	15	270	1	19	18.0
Career	45	171	1,962	10	234

Source: Pro-Football-Reference. Backtested against completed player-seasons in the index. The same engine powers the report-card percentiles and the DNA radar — one model, asked different questions. Illustrative.

Act III

The Lab

Every number, live and interactive. Real career data; models labeled.

Gold = award / milestone season · hover any bar. Real season totals.

Player DNA + compssimilarity model

Closest comps

Sam LaPorta 99%Mike Gesicki 98%Travis Kelce 98%Juwan Johnson 98%George Kittle 98%Isaiah Likely 98%

⚖ Overlay a rival →

Context

Are the Buffalo Bills built to win?

Team projection rolled up from the roster + last-season baselines — and what it means for his role.

12–5proj record

86off index

99def index

+51net

95%playoff odds

60roster

Roster delta · what changed

Offense grades A- (86), defense A+ (99) by our position-percentile roster model. QB play indexes at 78, pass rush 99, coverage 99.

How his role moves

Projected 12–5 on a 17-game slate — modeled from the current roster's production percentiles, not a calibrated Vegas line. His snaps, target/carry share and usage move with roster health.

Balladex Impact

50 of 99

Rotation piece tier.

Rarity

◆ Rated

Collectible tier.

Résumé

0 accolades

Career honors on file.

Act IV

The Ballad of Dalton Kincaid

Birth to now — the making of a legend, narrated and scored.

1999-10-18

The beginning

Dalton Kincaid is a Tight End for the Buffalo Bills, in his 4th NFL season.

Buffalo Bills

Turning pro

Drafted 25th overall, 2023 as a Tight End.

true

Dalton Kincaid is a Buffalo Bills tight end, drafted 25th overall, 2023.

Chapter

Across 4 seasons (2023–2026) he has caught 171 passes for 1,962 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Chapter

Most recently he caught 15 passes for 270 yards and 1 touchdown in 2026.

▶

Kincaid's story

The documentary, narrated

Highlights

▶ Bills drive down the field and take the lead with a Kincaid touchdown!▶ ANOTHER TD !! ALLEN AND KINCAID ARE LOCKED IN

Off the field

Measurables

Active

Height: 6' 3"
Weight: 246 lbs
Draft: 25th overall, 2023
Born: Las Vegas, NV
Age: 27
Jersey: #86

Background

Dalton Kincaid is from Las Vegas, NV and is 27 years old. He was drafted 25th overall, 2023 and plays tight end at 6' 3", 246 lbs.

Over 4 seasons (2023–2026) he has caught 171 passes for 1,962 yards and 10 touchdowns. Kincaid is currently on the Buffalo Bills roster.

The person

Dalton Kincaid is a rotational tight end who has caught 171 passes for 1,962 yards and 10 touchdowns across 4 seasons (2023–2026).

Receiving171 career receptions for 1,962 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Best season73 catches for 673 yards in 2023.

First-round pedigree25th overall, 2023.

Verified profiles & sources

ESPN ESPN ESPN

FAQ

Dalton Kincaid — frequently asked

The questions people ask most about Dalton Kincaid, answered.

What position does Dalton Kincaid play?

Dalton Kincaid is a Tight End for the Buffalo Bills.

When was Dalton Kincaid drafted?

Dalton Kincaid was drafted 25th overall, 2023.

How many seasons has Dalton Kincaid played?

4 (2023–2026).

What are Dalton Kincaid's career stats?

He has caught 171 passes for 1,962 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Dalton Kincaid career stats & accolades are real, and team projections and recent-game home/away splits are computed from real production. DNA ratings, grades, tonight's projection, ladders, live win probability and simulator outputs are Balladex model output. Not affiliated with the NBA.

Dalton Kincaid Buffalo Bills · #86

Dalton Kincaid — the report card

Where Dalton Kincaid stands

Dalton Kincaid — every number, three levels deep

How the model sees Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid career stats, season by season

The Lab

Are the Buffalo Bills built to win?

The Ballad of Dalton Kincaid

The beginning

Turning pro

true

Chapter

Chapter

Off the field

Dalton Kincaid — frequently asked

Current role & opportunity

Weekly matchups

Injury history

More Buffalo Bills players

Dalton Kincaid head-to-head

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