How the Balladex fantasy projections are calculated

The fantasy boards project each player's upcoming season, score it, and rank by value over replacement so that positional scarcity is priced in. Every number is a Balladex model estimate, not a guarantee.

By Beau Thoutt · Used on Fantasy football draft board, Fantasy basketball board, Sleepers, Busts, Start/sit

Inputs to the Fantasy projections

Football: each player's last three seasons, plus nflverse-derived inputs: quarterback rushing, targets and air yards, red-zone opportunity, snap-share trends, roster movement, strength of schedule, pass rate over expectation and the defenses on the schedule. Current injuries come from ESPN's injury feed and a curated availability file. Rookies with no NFL production use a separate rookie projection.
Basketball: each player's last three seasons of points, rebounds, assists, minutes and games, and a current-role context file covering minutes, usage and playmaking shifts.

How football projections are built

Per-game rates come from the last three seasons, weighted by recency (1, 2, 3 from oldest to newest) times the share of a full season played (games ÷ 17, held between 0.25 and 1). An injury-shortened year counts for less.
Position aging curves peak at 25 for running backs, 27 for receivers and tight ends, and 30 for quarterbacks, and fall more steeply after 29, 30, 31 and 38 respectively. Quarterback rushing has its own, faster-fading curve that peaks at 26.
A peak floor stops one down year from collapsing a proven producer. For players with three or more seasons, rates cannot fall below 65% of their age-adjusted best.
Pass-catchers are projected through targets: catch rate, yards per reception and touchdowns per reception are blended toward position averages, weighted by how many targets the player has seen.
Touchdowns are regressed toward the touchdowns his red-zone opportunity would earn at league conversion rates: 60% weight for rushing TDs (40% for quarterbacks), 50% for receiving TDs and 35% for passing TDs.
Roster movement scales volume by vacated or added targets and carries. High-volume players are protected from most of the downside.
Small, bounded tilts follow for depth-chart role, strength of schedule, the coaching staff's pass rate and the team's Vegas implied points (a 0.94–1.08 band).
A healthy player is projected for all 17 games. Only a current injury or availability issue reduces games. Past missed games feed a durability rating and the confidence score, not the points.

PPR scoring and other formats

Default PPR scoring: 1 point per 25 passing yards, 4 per passing TD, −2 per interception, 1 per 10 rushing or receiving yards, 6 per rushing or receiving TD, and 1 per reception.
Half-PPR (0.5 per reception), Standard (0 per reception) and TE-premium (an extra 0.5 per tight-end reception) re-score the same projected stats.

Value over replacement, tiers and the draft round

When a player is projected for fewer than 15 games, his ranking value is his points per game × games ÷ 17 (at least 12% of it).
Value over replacement (VOR) = ranking value − the value of the replacement-level player at his position, in a 12-team league: QB13, RB30, WR36, TE13.
The overall rank is by VOR. The draft round is ceil(rank ÷ 12). It is a rank-based model draft cost, not market ADP.
A new tier starts wherever the VOR drop to the next player is larger than 5% of the top player's VOR (at least 1.1 points), up to 10 tiers.
Breakout: a young player (running backs 23 and under, others 24 and under) projected 1.5+ points per game above last season and ranked inside the top 90. Bust: a top-48 player last season projected to drop 2.5+ points per game, or an older top-40 player (running backs 28+, quarterbacks 37+, others 30+) projected to drop 1.5+. Sleeper: ranked 43–150, young or rising, and projected at least 1.5 points per game above replacement.
Confidence (40–96) starts at 58, rises with seasons of history and prime age, and falls with season-to-season volatility and durability risk.

How basketball projections are built

Points-league scoring: points × 1 + rebounds × 1.2 + assists × 1.5 per game.
Per-game rates come from the last three seasons, weighted by recency times games ÷ 82 (held between 0.3 and 1), then bent along an aging curve that peaks at 27 and falls more steeply after 32.
Each rate is blended 35% toward the player's best recent season of 15+ games when that season was higher. Players with three or more seasons cannot fall below 65% of it.
Minutes, usage and playmaking shifts from the context file nudge the line, held within 0.6×–1.6×.
Projected games = recency-weighted games played, between 30 and 82, minus 4 at age 34 or older.
Replacement level in a 12-team league is the 45th guard, the 45th forward and the 18th center. VOR, tiers and the draft round follow the football method.

Known limitations

The draft round comes from Balladex's own ranking, not from real drafts. It can differ from market ADP by several rounds.
The basketball scoring counts points, rebounds and assists only. Steals, blocks, threes and turnovers are not projected, so the board is not built for category leagues.
Kickers and team defenses are not ranked on the football board.
Projections follow the data files. When an input refreshes late, the board reflects the older input until it does.
Breakout, bust and sleeper labels are mechanical rules on the projection, not scouting reports.

Fantasy projections: frequently asked questions

How does Balladex project fantasy football points?

It projects per-game rates from each player's last three seasons, weighted by recency and games played, bends them along a position aging curve, regresses touchdowns toward red-zone opportunity, adjusts for role, roster movement and schedule, and scores the result in PPR over a full 17-game season unless the player is currently injured.

What is value over replacement (VOR)?

VOR is a player's projected value minus the value of a replacement-level player at his position. In a 12-team league, Balladex uses the 13th quarterback, 30th running back, 36th wide receiver and 13th tight end as replacement level.

Is the Balladex ADP round real ADP?

No. The draft round is the player's Balladex overall rank divided into rounds of 12. It is a model draft cost, not data from real drafts.

How are sleepers and busts chosen?

By rule. A sleeper is ranked 43–150, young or rising, and projected at least 1.5 points per game above replacement. A bust was a top-48 player last season and is projected to drop 2.5 or more points per game, or is an older top-40 player projected to drop 1.5 or more.

What scoring do the fantasy basketball projections use?

Points-league scoring: 1 per point, 1.2 per rebound and 1.5 per assist. Steals, blocks, threes and turnovers are not included.

Other Balladex models

Balladex Impact index — A 0–99 composite of an NBA player's skill ratings plus a capped bonus for major honors.
MVP odds — NBA and NFL MVP ladders: a production-based score per contender, turned into probabilities across the field.
Title and Super Bowl odds — NBA title odds from a team rating (last season, roster talent, this season) run through the bracket; Super Bowl odds from point differential.
Power rankings and team grades — Teams ordered by point differential, with an A–F grade from win percentage.
Compare verdict — Head-to-head verdicts: who leads in more shared stat categories, and which pairs get a page.
NFL production index — A cross-position NFL rating: each player's production as a percentile of his position, curved to 20–99.

Source. Transcribed from lib/nflFantasyProj.js; lib/nbaFantasyProj.js; lib/fantasyScoring.js in the Balladex codebase. Found an error? Email hello@balladex.com. See the full methodology, including data sources and the corrections policy.