How the NFL production index is calculated

The production index makes a quarterback, a pass rusher and a cornerback comparable by grading each against his own position on real season production. It is a Balladex model estimate, not an official statistic.

By Beau Thoutt · Used on Best NFL players right now, NFL player pages

Inputs to the NFL production index

Each active player's latest season line from nflverse, and the same line for every other active player in his position group: quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, defensive linemen, linebackers, defensive backs, kickers and offensive linemen.

Skill cards by position

Quarterbacks: passing yards, passing TDs, passer rating, completion percentage, and interceptions (fewer is better).
Running backs: rushing yards, rushing TDs, receiving yards, scrimmage yards and receptions.
Wide receivers and tight ends: receiving yards, receptions, receiving TDs, yards per reception and targets.
Defensive linemen, linebackers and defensive backs: sacks, tackles, passes defended, forced fumbles and interceptions.
Kickers: field goals, points and extra points. Offensive linemen: games played.

How the production index is calculated

For each card, find the player's percentile among every active player at his position. Counting stats are compared per game, and rate stats (passer rating, completion percentage, yards per reception) as they are.
With fewer than three games, the percentile is pulled toward the 50th (weight = games ÷ 3, at least 0.25), so a one-game line can't top a position.
Each percentile is curved to a rating: 38 + 0.6 × percentile, held between 20 and 99. A median player rates about 68.
The production index is the average of the player's card ratings.

How the best NFL players list is ranked

Only players with a current-season line and a real workload qualify: 60% of the weeks played so far, at least two games.
Score = production index × position weight × availability. Weights: QB 1.12, WR 1.0, DL 1.0, DB 0.95, TE 0.92, LB 0.9, RB 0.9, K 0.55. Availability = games played ÷ weeks completed, between 0.3 and 1.
Ties are broken by career stature, and the top 25 are listed.

Known limitations

The index measures box-score production only. Blocking, coverage that produces no stat, and offensive line play beyond games played are invisible to it.
A percentile is relative to this season's active pool, so a player's index can move even in a week he doesn't play.
Position weights are Balladex judgments about positional value.
Early in the season, per-game percentiles rest on only a few games.

NFL production index: frequently asked questions

What is the Balladex NFL production index?

A 20–99 rating of an NFL player's season production compared with every active player at his position. Each stat is a per-game percentile, curved so the median player rates about 68, and the index is the average across the position's skill cards.

How are the best NFL players right now ranked?

Players with a current-season workload are ranked by production index × a position weight (QB 1.12 down to K 0.55) × availability (games played ÷ weeks completed), with career stature as the tiebreak.

Why compare players to their own position?

Raw stats aren't comparable across positions: a sack and a passing yard can't be added. A percentile within the position puts a top quarterback and a top pass rusher on the same scale.

Other Balladex models

Balladex Impact index — A 0–99 composite of an NBA player's skill ratings plus a capped bonus for major honors.
MVP odds — NBA and NFL MVP ladders: a production-based score per contender, turned into probabilities across the field.
Title and Super Bowl odds — NBA title odds from a team rating (last season, roster talent, this season) run through the bracket; Super Bowl odds from point differential.
Power rankings and team grades — Teams ordered by point differential, with an A–F grade from win percentage.
Fantasy projections — Forward-looking fantasy points, value over replacement, tiers and a model draft round for NFL and NBA.
Compare verdict — Head-to-head verdicts: who leads in more shared stat categories, and which pairs get a page.

Source. Transcribed from lib/nflVision.js (nflGradeScore, cardsFor); components/NflBestPlayers.jsx; lib/nflAwards.js (workloadFloor) in the Balladex codebase. Found an error? Email hello@balladex.com. See the full methodology, including data sources and the corrections policy.