Matchup model · Wednesday, October 21, 2026
Game markets
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.8 | 21 | 22 | 39% | Under |
| Rebounds | 3.5 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 26% | Under |
| Assists | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 55% | Lean over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 27.9 | 26.4 | 28 | 33% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 25.3 | 23.8 | 25.5 | 31% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 24.4 | 23.7 | 24.5 | 42% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Norman Powell draws Toronto Raptors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jamal Shead (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Kawhi Leonard secondary, with Jakob Poeltl as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 16.2 pts a night over his last 5 (-5.6 vs season). Model lines Powell at 21 pts (range 17.8–24.3) vs a 22 line — an uphill case to clear it (39%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Toronto Raptors (69%), projected 116–121, ~237 total at 99.7 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 21.4 | 21.1 | 21.5 | 45% | Lean under |
| Rebounds | 6.9 | 5.4 | 7 | 9% | Under |
| Assists | 2.9 | 2.4 | 3 | 31% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 31.2 | 28.9 | 31 | 30% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 28.3 | 26.5 | 28.5 | 30% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 24.3 | 23.5 | 24.5 | 40% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Matas Buzelis draws Toronto Raptors's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Jamal Shead (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Kawhi Leonard secondary, with Jakob Poeltl as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17.6 pts a night over his last 5 (-3.8 vs season). Model lines Buzelis at 21.1 pts (range 17.9–24.3) vs a 21.5 line — roughly a coin flip to clear it (45%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Toronto Raptors (69%), projected 116–121, ~237 total at 99.7 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 29.2 | 27.5 | 29 | 38% | Under |
| Rebounds | 6.3 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 10% | Under |
| Assists | 3.9 | 3.7 | 4 | 40% | Under |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 39.4 | 36.2 | 39.5 | 26% | Under |
| Pts + Reb | 35.5 | 32.5 | 35.5 | 27% | Under |
| Pts + Ast | 33.1 | 31.2 | 33 | 36% | Under |
Why — matchup factors
Kawhi Leonard draws Chicago Bulls's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Isaac Okoro (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Patrick Williams secondary, with Orlando Robinson as the low-man/help.
He's cold — 17.4 pts a night over his last 5 (-11.8 vs season). Model lines Leonard at 27.5 pts (range 23.3–31.8) vs a 29 line — an uphill case to clear it (38%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Toronto Raptors (69%), projected 121–116, ~237 total at 99.7 pace.
| Market | Season | Proj | Line | Over | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 19.2 | 19.8 | 19 | 59% | Over |
| Rebounds | 5.2 | 4.1 | 5 | 22% | Under |
| Assists | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3 | 62% | Over |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 27.6 | 27.2 | 27.5 | 47% | Lean under |
| Pts + Reb | 24.4 | 23.9 | 24.5 | 43% | Lean under |
| Pts + Ast | 22.4 | 23.1 | 22.5 | 57% | Lean over |
Why — matchup factors
RJ Barrett draws Chicago Bulls's aggressive hedge & help scheme — hedges hard on ball screens and rotates aggressive help from the weak side.
Primary assignment projects to Isaac Okoro (strong defender, 82 Perimeter D), Patrick Williams secondary, with Orlando Robinson as the low-man/help.
Model lines Barrett at 19.8 pts (range 16.8–22.8) vs a 19 line — a lean to clear it (59%).
Biggest edge: opponent defense — soft unit — points come easier.
Model favors Toronto Raptors (69%), projected 121–116, ~237 total at 99.7 pace.